Speculated earlier in the year that Obama would let Putin complete his invasion of Georgia, but that seems like a weak deal now. Putin will want much more. Iran is more or less solid right now. The US has pulled many of its assets out of the Persian Gulf to positions off the Syrian coast. So if Iran wants Iraq, they could take it fairly easy now. The question is, what will Putin want.
‘The question is, what will Putin want.’
I think the simple answer to this is, he’ll want to keep the Russian naval base at Tartus. It’s enormously strategically important, being Russia’s only permanent naval base in the Mediterranean, or indeed anywhere outside the former USSR.
I’d expect some deal whereby the ‘Free Syrian Army’ agreed to allow the base to remain in place (initially, at least) in return for the Russians agreeing to turn a blind eye to whatever Obama eventually decides to do in Syria.