[socialism_stinX]

You're right on target. High-speed rail will lose money in California for a long, long time, simply because in the foreseeable future people will still need cars to get around in California's major cities. By the time train passengers wait for the shuttle bus to the rental car company, stand in line to rent their cars, return their cars and take the shuttle back to the train station, and pay for their rental cars, they will have used up most of the time and all the money they saved by taking high-speed rail instead of driving. So the only people who will want to take the high-speed train are people who are on business and are staying reasonably close to the train station, or people who have family & friends who can pick them up at the train station. This eliminates a big group of potential riders and will cause high-speed rail to lose money at least until 2050. Quite possibly, high speed rail will never be able to break even on cash flow in CA.

For the foreseeable future, high-speed rail is really only going to work well in the Northeast in the Boston to Washington corridor where cities are more compact and it's easier to get around by walking and using cabs, and public transportation takes you to many more places than it cam take you to in CA. In the very long run, maybe in the second half of this century, when public transportation improves greatly in CA, then high-speed rail could make sense and at least break even. We shouldn't be spending tax money and borrowed money on this project until then.

[socialism_stinX]

Just to clarify, business travelers who are staying reasonably close to the train station and doing business nearby will be able to take a taxi or a hotel shuttle bus from the train station to their hotel and to business meetings. Therefore the high-speed train will be convenient for these people and I’m sure many of them will choose to take the high-speed trains. But most of the people who still have to rent a car if they take the train will choose to drive their own car or take an airline flight, which will still be much faster between Northern California and Southern California.