Posted on 11/30/2012 12:29:35 PM PST by Kaslin
The old adage "be careful what you wish for" is an apt reminder in light of this week's news that the U.S. birthrate has dropped to its lowest level on record. For years, population hysterics have tried to convince Americans to aim not just for zero population growth in the U.S. but its complete reversal.
Many of the groups pushing this view have also been in the forefront of the anti-immigration movement -- NumbersUSA, Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) and Negative Population Growth (NPG). They don't like immigrants -- even legal ones -- because immigrants, especially Hispanic immigrants, traditionally have had higher birth rates than the native born. But the new report from the Pew Research Center suggests that even among Hispanic immigrants, birth rates are falling quickly. So why is this a problem?
Contrary to the agenda pushed by the aforementioned neo-Malthusian groups, a declining population can spell real economic trouble in the future. As populations in advanced countries age, more people become dependents rather than contributors to the economy. Especially in nations that provide a social safety net, such as Social Security and Medicare in the U.S., the ability to fund these programs depends on population growth among younger, working-age people.
Declining population means fewer tax dollars to pay for everything from Social Security to national defense. As the base of taxpayers shrinks, the government will either have to reduce benefits and spending on essential programs or take a larger share of workers' incomes to pay for them. But the latter approach -- raising taxes -- will only make the problem worse. If people get to keep less of the money they earn, productivity declines and revenues fall. It's human nature.
Other countries with declining birthrates, most notably Japan, are paying the price already. Economic growth in these countries has slowed -- Japan, once considered a threat to American economic dominance, has experienced two decades of slowed growth. It is no coincidence that Japan also has one of the world's strictest immigration policies. They allow temporary workers but neither their integration nor the granting of citizenship to their children born on Japanese soil.
The U.S., on the other hand, traditionally has been generous in terms of immigration. The inflow of newcomers, who are younger, entering the workforce, and more likely to give birth to children than native-born Americans, has made our economy more dynamic and ensured a future funding source for programs for our aging, dependent, native-born population.
But the dismal economy of the last four years has discouraged immigrants. Mexicans, who for years have been the largest group of immigrants to the U.S., are no longer coming in vast numbers. Last year, net immigration from Mexico fell to zero for the first time since the Great Depression. And those immigrants already here are choosing to have far fewer children. The overall American birthrate fell by 8 percent between 2007 and 2010, but the birthrate among Mexican immigrant women fell by 23 percent.
The decision by immigrant women to have fewer children is not only rational during an economic downturn, it is a sign of their assimilation to American norms. They are emulating the decisions of American women to have smaller families to invest more in raising each child. The solution to the problem of declining birthrates is not to encourage the women already living here to have more babies, but to boost our population size by admitting more working-age, productive immigrants.
Without a continued influx of such immigrants, America will become poorer, not richer. Not only will millions of hard-working people be denied the opportunity to make their lives better, but Americans will lose out on the benefits of a growing economy.
I don’t take advice from a pseudo conservative named Chavez.
We can only hope.
EXCEPT for the illegals. Our dear government will always find an excuse to let more in.
Linda Chavez is such a disappointment. Like Colin Powell, she was promoted during Reagan in the belief she was a race-blind true conservative. And like Powell, she turned out to be a race-obsessed RINO.
I know it's not much consolation to people who have been in bad marriages to say this, but bruising, life-wrecking divorces are not the norm even now. From where I stand --- from what I can see (maybe this is a "subculture," but it's a major subculture) ---I see faithful husbands and wives, faithful to each other and to our children, and to God to Whom our vows are paid.
And she's not hysterical.
You can certainly criticize Linda Chavez on policies, and do so with facts; but the attempt to encapsulate her character with a few broadly insulting phrases is, I think, poorly directed.
Chavez plays the race card, calling all those who wish to reduce illegal immigration racist. She calls those of us who want to reduce absolute immigration Malthusiasts, racist and nativist. She is a liberal and race baiter. She’s no conservative. She falls between neoconservatives like Irving Kristol and neoliberals like Dan Patrik Moynihan.
It’s also a generational thing.
I’m talking specifically about the situation facing young males today - in the age bracket (say, 18 to 30) where they’d want to marry and start a family.
Women in that age bracket are, in the majority, some of the most self-entitled brats and solipsists I’ve ever met. About one third of them are overweight, about one eighth of them border on morbid obesity. They’re loud, obnoxious, ready to complain and fight at the drop of a hat, and many of them think that men are little more than a wallet on legs.
My advice to young men today is to not get married, period, full stop. If they find the girl of their dreams who they can get to know very well and discover everything about her attitudes towards money, work, parenting, etc - and they think she’s not a loon, well then perhaps make an exception to the rule.
But the consequences of choosing poorly are now so high for men that failure to choose correctly is no longer an option. Wages for young men have stagnated, and with the costs of tuition, housing, cars, etc - a young man simply cannot afford to go through even a relatively civil divorce. I’m not talking the crazy-woman divorces here, I’m talking of a normal divorce with normal outcomes. They’re financially crushing for most men.
Older people here on FR who associate only with conservative Christians need to get out more. They’re living in a small and shrinking community in the US. Go take a walkabout on either coast of the US, where the majority of the population lives, and you’ll see that I’m not offering bad advice to young men.
I should add that I’m happily married for a long time to only one girl. And she largely agrees with me and is flabbergasted at some of the venal, abusive and irrational behavior by young women. She would like it if I were not offering the advice I am to young men, but she understands why I am offering said advice to young men. She sees the same situation I do.
Yeah, I know. There is a pony in there somewhere.
I think you need to take your blinders off. I’ve read all of Mark Steyn’s books as well and I’m a big fan of his.
But there is one key distinction. Muslim immigration is not equivalent to Hispanic immigration in one respect — most Hispanics eventually come to love America, and to fight and die for America. That is not happening with Muslim immigrants to America and with Muslim immigrants to the EU countries.
Yeah, our politicians suck and give away freebies to immigrants, encouraging more to come here. Not good. But I don’t think that by 2040 the USA, with it’s significant Hispanic population, is doomed like Europe, with its Muslim population. Hispanics also don’t riot like the Muslims do in Paris.
Can you give me a quote or link on that? You're right, that really is race-baiting if she's doing that.
Yes, a sure sign of decline, decay, and ultimately fall, when grandparents are outnumbering grandchildren. This has been going on in Europe for decades. Native European populations soon to be outnumbered by non-European immigrant groups, primarily muslim.
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