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The biggest thing the doomers got wrong pre-2009 was that they correctly predicted that China would stop buying our treasury bonds, but incorrectly predicted that no one else would step in and purchase them. In fact, the federal reserve is now the top buyer of bonds, in a policy move that is basically illegal from what I understand, and impossible to predict pre-2009. They also did not predict that accounting rules would be changed to allow life to go on like it has in a balance sheet impaired state.

This doesn't mean, however, that those problems were fixed, it just means the can was kicked down the road a bit longer than doomers thought it could be. We still are accumulating debt and will within a decade or so be unable to make payments on it. This will cause another crisis.

Personally, my biggest lesson of the last few years is to never underestimate the inertia of the normalcy bias of the American people. This country is being held up by duct tape and an oblivious public that doesn't see it is out on a ledge.

My personal prediction is that the least painful choice going forward would be to default to the debt held by the federal reserve, renounce the charter of the federal reserve bank, and then the treasury will print money directly. The federal reserve doesn't have an army, and Obama can demonize anyone pretty well. It will be the least painful choice at the time the choice needs to be made.

Of course, having the treasury just print money at the rate we are spending will be the actual kick off of the strong inflation that will really hurt us. But nobody will have appeared to have made that choice, it will just be an "accident."