Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Will Obama II Be Reagan I Or Truman III?
zero hedge ^

Posted on 11/11/2012 6:47:11 PM PST by Perdogg

There are plenty of analogs for market and economic behavior currently echoing the past - some scary, some terrifying, and some hopeful. Barclays found two interestingly similar election-bound relationships to the current environment but with very different outcomes: Harry Truman's successful 'Fair Deal' 1948 campaign and Jimmy Carter's unsuccessful 1980 re-election effort.

Via Barclays:

In both cases business confidence and capital spending were soft during the election year; however, during the sprint to the November elections the market went in completely different directions.

In 1948, the S&P 500 dropped 11% from June through late September, bounced in October then fell sharply after Truman won in a shocking upset.

In 1980, the S&P 500 rallied 36% from March through late September, had a 5% correction in October followed by a post-election rally to higher levels after Reagan won a decisive victory.



Capital spending fell sharply in late 1948 and 1H49, driving the economy into recession due in part to a monetary policy mistake (raising the reserve requirement), while in 1981 capital spending increased sharply.



This year’s election had similarities with both. Unfortunately the market traded as if this was 1980, but it turns out we could be headed for ‘Truman’s 3rd term’ (See Figures 3 and 4)..

Clearly the risk is a policy mistake – this time fiscal – which could drive another capital spending bust and a shallow recession..

So, will Obama's 2nd Term be more like Truman's 3rd or Reagan's 1st for the market and the economy - based on potential for policy mistake... or c) none of the above... .



TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-39 next last

1 posted on 11/11/2012 6:47:13 PM PST by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Carter III


2 posted on 11/11/2012 6:48:29 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

ObamaII will be like Hitler 1936-1940.


3 posted on 11/11/2012 6:49:32 PM PST by Farmer Dean (stop worrying about what they want to do to you,start thinking about what you want to do to them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Truman III??


4 posted on 11/11/2012 6:50:06 PM PST by socalgop
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Stalin I. Lenin I. Mugabe I. Mao I. Pol Pot I.


5 posted on 11/11/2012 6:53:18 PM PST by lurk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

What?

It’s Jimmah Carter II.

Johnson II.

Hoovervilles 2015.


6 posted on 11/11/2012 6:53:18 PM PST by Kevmo ("A person's a person, no matter how small" ~Horton Hears a Who)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Obama I, with more tee times.


7 posted on 11/11/2012 6:55:29 PM PST by AU72
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Stalin II


8 posted on 11/11/2012 6:59:50 PM PST by stanne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I’ll go with Chavez I.

Raila O’Dinga the First works as well...


9 posted on 11/11/2012 7:01:55 PM PST by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Obama II will be like the end of America.

Obama doesn’t like:

America’s success in the world,
The energy levels we consume,
The percentage of the world’s resources we use,
America’s military influence in the world,
The Freedom’s enjoyed by the American people,
Christian influence on American culture,
Christian charities competing with his Gov’t vote buying schemes,
The quality and availability of the Healthcare in America,

With a compliant media clearing the path and covering his tracks, there is nothing to stop him from destroying America.


10 posted on 11/11/2012 7:02:35 PM PST by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Why can’t he be Assclown I?


11 posted on 11/11/2012 7:02:35 PM PST by RichInOC (Palin 2016: The Perfect Storm.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Seems more Woodrow Wilson / FDR to me.


12 posted on 11/11/2012 7:02:54 PM PST by Morris70
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Who dares put obama and Reagan in the same sentence - where’s my bat - I need to break knee caps.


13 posted on 11/11/2012 7:03:28 PM PST by svcw (Why is one cell on another planet considered life, and in the womb it is not.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RichInOC

Because it’s his Second Term!


14 posted on 11/11/2012 7:03:51 PM PST by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Stalin!


15 posted on 11/11/2012 7:04:38 PM PST by meyer (Proud member of the 53%.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: G Larry

Can’t argue with any of your post. I think the only question is how much and what qualities of America hatred are Obana’s and which are the influences of the puppet masters that put him in power? I realize there may not be much difference.


17 posted on 11/11/2012 7:07:46 PM PST by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Stalin II


18 posted on 11/11/2012 7:10:54 PM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Mugabe


19 posted on 11/11/2012 7:16:14 PM PST by boomop1 (term limits will only save this country.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Wilson III.


20 posted on 11/11/2012 7:18:59 PM PST by Lattero
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-39 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson