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To: jackmercer
Jack, I have been remiss in not publicly complimenting you on the accuracy and professionalism of your posts throughout the campaign. I also have a confession, I dismissed the implications of your findings not because I did not believe they were accurate but because I did not think they were predictive. In other words, I got stuck on what people like Morris and Barone were saying concerning the weighting of the polls etc. and that comported with my prejudices which were the effect that people thought the way I thought and would not suffer their country to be destroyed before their eyes, much less destroy it by their own hands.

One of the reasons why I posted this article about Nate Silver is to demonstrate how treacherous it is for one to ignore people like you and believe our own worldview, which is precisely what I did.

There is a lesson to be learned. Before we decide in which direction to go to win the next election and save the country (assuming there is something left to be saved and something of liberty too), convinced of our virtue, demanding that we turn right, insisting that the election was stolen, blaming the candidate, even blaming the weather, we should turn to people like you and get some hard data and we should interpret that data as dispassionately as human nature will permit.

I do not assume that is easy, Michael Barone got it wrong, but there is no other way.


23 posted on 11/10/2012 10:28:18 AM PST by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

To be honest, I was furious with so many people like Morris, drudge, Rasmussen, Barone etc but finally with a week or 2 to go, let it all go as it was too late.

Had the campaign and activists like many at FR realized that the Romney momentum was a mirage or that demographics were against from the very beginning back in the spring, the GOTV operations and the base activists would have been working lie bees on Meth to get this election.

But everyone had their blinders on but really, who can blame them. They had so-called professional pundits like Morris, Barone and half of Fox telling them all is well, Romney has it in the bag with the first debate momentum.

When I finally got the balls to post my predictions based on my own view of the 2010 census and the equation I put together, I got kicked in the b**ls by a ton of freepers and I knew I would. I admit my cowardice but I’ve posted things that went against the conventional, conservative memes before and being the pariah in a place you find solace and like-minded views really sucks.


33 posted on 11/10/2012 11:04:31 AM PST by jackmercer
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To: nathanbedford; jackmercer
I never saw any jackmercer posts until the other day, so I missed out on a rich discussion. Even with the flaws in the Rasmussen polls, he also showed that the Senate was lost, too.

-PJ

60 posted on 11/10/2012 8:38:47 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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