Don’t mistake the “conservative” voters who stayed home with the conservative activists in the churches and the Tea Party movement. People who are actively involved in conservative causes and the Republican Party did grudgingly go all in for Romney in spite of their reservations about his conservative credentials and his scorched earth tactics against his primary opponents. The people who didn’t show up to vote are a different group entirely.
Keep in mind how low the turnout usually is in an American election. In 2008 Obama was able to energize black and young voters and brought in 9 million more votes than he did in 2012. He had a massive downturn in his level of support. Yes, all of the true believers and activists showed up for Obama, but the 9 million votes he lost were from marginal voters who likely also stayed away from the polls in 2004. The same thing can be said about Romney and McCain. In spite of his weakness as a candidate, McCain did have an energized base thanks to Sarah Palin. That energized base grew in the 2010 mid-term elections, that saw the Tea Party galvanize a “throw the bums out” message in opposition to overspending and Obamacare.
What Romney lost was a group of previously apathetic voters who had been energized by Palin in 2008 and the Tea Party in 2010. Those folks are activists or party workers, but Joe Sixpack who hates all politicians, thinks that they’re all corrupt or incompetent, and needs to be scared or angered into voting. Romney’s polite messaging wasn’t enough to light a fire this year. He needed to make them aware of what Obama was going to do to them in terms of taxes, Obamacare, and destruction of certain industries. He ran a good campaign that brought most of the hardcore Republican supporters back into the fold, but not that 5-10% of marginal Republican support that needs to be fired up.
Don’t mistake the “conservative” voters who stayed home with the conservative activists in the churches and the Tea Party movement. People who are actively involved in conservative causes and the Republican Party did grudgingly go all in for Romney in spite of their reservations about his conservative credentials and his scorched earth tactics against his primary opponents. The people who didn’t show up to vote are a different group entirely.
Keep in mind how low the turnout usually is in an American election. In 2008 Obama was able to energize black and young voters and brought in 9 million more votes than he did in 2012. He had a massive downturn in his level of support. Yes, all of the true believers and activists showed up for Obama, but the 9 million votes he lost were from marginal voters who likely also stayed away from the polls in 2004. The same thing can be said about Romney and McCain. In spite of his weakness as a candidate, McCain did have an energized base thanks to Sarah Palin. That energized base grew in the 2010 mid-term elections, that saw the Tea Party galvanize a “throw the bums out” message in opposition to overspending and Obamacare.
What Romney lost was a group of previously apathetic voters who had been energized by Palin in 2008 and the Tea Party in 2010. Those folks are not activists or party workers, but Joe Sixpack who hates all politicians, thinks that they’re all corrupt or incompetent, and needs to be scared or angered into voting. Romney’s polite messaging wasn’t enough to light a fire this year. He needed to make them aware of what Obama was going to do to them in terms of taxes, Obamacare, and destruction of certain industries. He ran a good campaign that brought most of the hardcore Republican supporters back into the fold, but not that 5-10% of marginal Republican support that needs to be fired up.