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With sterling call, Nate Silver defines new wave in polling
Reuters ^ | November 7, 2012 | David K. Randall

Posted on 11/08/2012 4:57:01 AM PST by SoFloFreeper

So much for gut feeling.

After correctly predicting the results in 49 of the 50 states that have been called in the U.S. election (Florida remains too close to call), Nate Silver, the statistician behind the popular FiveThirtyEight blog, woke on Wednesday to find himself the poster child of what is sure to be a new data-driven approach to politics.

While Obama was declared the winner of the election, Silver won the polling race. Television anchors from Rachel Maddow on the left-leaning MSNBC, to Bret Baier on the right-leaning Fox News, praised his accuracy. A comedian on Twitter called him "The Emperor of Math." Silver's publicist said he had been so inundated with requests she had been unable to reach him.

(Excerpt) Read more at mobile.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012
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To: woodbutcher1963

Thank you for your excellent observations and comments. A lot of conservatives don’t want to face the fact that just being more conservative isn’t going to win elections for us. Demographics are changing, attitudes are becoming more libertine, etc. We don’t have to sacrifice principles, but we are going to have to focus on issues that we can build winning majorities with. The younger generation coming up is open to our message on the economy and foreign policy, but the Republican party is increasingly completely out of touch these days on social attitudes.


61 posted on 11/08/2012 7:52:07 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: Mr. Know It All
Thinking that "party ID" was some kind of fixed measurement is the #1 mistake that "Unskewed Polls" made.

That whole "unskewed polls" thing was utterly ridiculous. It is amazing, and a little bit scary, that people here (and elsewhere) were buying into it. It just goes to show you that people will believe almost anything if it makes the facts conform to their worldview. I like to think conservatives are more realistic and reasonable when it comes to this kind of stuff, but nope, our side seems just as likely to be fooled into believe dopey things, conspiracy theories, etc, as the opposition. Sad.

62 posted on 11/08/2012 8:10:31 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
The conservative movement is going to have to completely separate itself from the Tom Tancredo's of the world.

I agree in principle, but in practice, this is a tough problem. Social conservatives are really, really wedded to their issues. Asking them to "let it slide" to win an election is difficult. I know because I'm socially conservative on life issues and when I betray those issues with my vote, it's uncomfortable. For many others, however, it's unthinkable.

Think about this analogy: if you were in debt, would you let your wife or daughter prostitute herself? If not, why is it OK to let your country sell out its moral values so that we can pay down the deficit? It's not a great analogy, but I think it captures the social-versus-fiscal divide.

I don't know how to make the Republican social platform more "marketable" without losing the social conservatives, but maybe this is a place to find social conservatives with some ideas on that.

63 posted on 11/08/2012 8:11:45 AM PST by Mr. Know It All
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To: Mr. Know It All
This is another misunderstanding from the polling this year: party ID is fluid.

OH, SFW? rinos are losers. Do you dispute this with 20 years worth of rinos losing elections now?

You're trying to turn something that is slapping you in the face into a pat on your ass! If republican's do not understand by now, rino's lose national election they can GFT!

I want no part of a LOSERS way of thinking any more!

64 posted on 11/08/2012 8:28:32 AM PST by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: nwrep
Correct. But, it also reaffirms that 'conservative' media lives in a bubble and suffers from group think.

I'm however, highly optimistic. Obama was/is the Dems golden child. The Dems wont get turnout like this again for a while. All is not lost.

If the GOP goes down the round of pandering to minorities, then they are finished though.

65 posted on 11/08/2012 8:28:40 AM PST by Theoria (Romney is a Pyrrhic victory.)
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To: Longbow1969
The conservative movement is going to have to completely separate itself from the Tom Tancredo's of the world.

The evidence is right infront of your face, but you chose not to see it. Conservatives do not have to change jackS***. republican have to stop foisting rinos upon conservatives. My evidence is FACTUAL proof over the last twenty years. Are you really gonna sit here with your BS theory and try to convince conservatives they have to change?

YOU stop it!

66 posted on 11/08/2012 8:41:43 AM PST by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: Mr. Know It All
You don't have evidence.

Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney! Ok, conservatives voted, all of them, but the fact still remains RINOS ARE LOSERS! If that's not evident and you don't get it then you just choose not too. Right now there are 2m LESS votes than McCain had in 2008...

67 posted on 11/08/2012 8:48:43 AM PST by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: sirchtruth

You are coming across as sad and pathetic. I suspect you just can’t bring yourself to face reality yet. Just earlier in this thread you were claiming Dick Morris was right...when even Dick Morris isn’t claiming that. Morris admitted he was completely and utterly wrong.

Take a few days to think things over, perhaps you will have calmed down by then and stopped acting so rude.

Just being more conservative is not going to solve our problems. The new generations are more libertine and we have to figure out how to appeal to these people. Voting habits become hard to break, and losing by such massive margins among younger people spells disaster for a very long time. Additionally, the Hispanic demographic is growing rapidly and we need to more directly tailor appeals to them with the understanding that identify politics works. I hate that it does, but it is what it is. There just aren’t enough white men left to carry this nation. That means we need to better reach other voting demographics. We are going to have to think and talk about a whole host of issues differently. We will likely need to emphasize fiscal/economic policy and de-emphasize social platforms. On the path we are on now as a party, we won’t be able to win Texas and Arizona statewide in another 10-20 years.


68 posted on 11/08/2012 8:51:31 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
Just earlier in this thread you were claiming Dick Morris was right...when even Dick Morris isn’t claiming that. Morris admitted he was completely and utterly wrong.

I corrected what I meant. I know Morris was wrong.

Look, if that's what you believe then stay with rinos and be a loser. That's not being rude, that's being factual!

Nobody is claiming you have to be "more" conservative. I don't GAS about your statistics, rino's are loser as PROVEN over 5 election cycles now! That trumps any theories!

Go console Romney, you don't know what you're talking about!

Conservatives do NOT have to change.

69 posted on 11/08/2012 9:06:19 AM PST by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: sirchtruth
Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney! Ok, conservatives voted, all of them, but the fact still remains RINOS ARE LOSERS! If that's not evident and you don't get it then you just choose not too. Right now there are 2m LESS votes than McCain had in 2008...

The point of this thread is that the polls were accurate despite all of the people insisting otherwise -- from Dick Morris to people here.

Who is your favorite non-RINO? Do you have any evidence this non-RINO would have beaten Obama? A lot of people think Sarah Palin would have, but when you poll that match-up, Palin loses like Mondale. Palin fans don't want to accept that, but it's what the evidence says.

You win an election with the electorate you have -- not the electorate you might want or wish to have at a later time.

70 posted on 11/08/2012 9:26:31 AM PST by Mr. Know It All
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To: sirchtruth
Nobody is claiming you have to be "more" conservative. I don't GAS about your statistics, rino's are loser as PROVEN over 5 election cycles now! That trumps any theories!

Go console Romney, you don't know what you're talking about!

Wow, you're really kind of a jerk aren't you? Why so rude and obnoxious? You're never going to win anyone over to your point of view with an attitude like that.

Conservatives do NOT have to change.

Sure, tell that to Republicans in a state like say California. Never mind the rapidly expanding Hispanic voting demographic has overwhelmingly rejected the current conservative approach and message. Democrats now have pretty much every state office and super majorities in the state houses.

Open your eyes man. In 2-3 more election cycles we won't be able to win even Texas.

71 posted on 11/08/2012 9:26:43 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: Mr. Know It All
The point of this thread is that the polls were accurate despite all of the people insisting otherwise --

Ok, I acknowledge the polls were accurate to a point, but what matters is regardless of the "polls" being accurate something is TERRIBLY wrong with the republicans not being able to beat an incumbent we STILL don't know anything about. An incumbent who gave us the largest debt in history, gas prices at $4.00, Obamacare which is going to make health cost unaffordable and no one yet knows what's really in the legislation, Unemployment is still at 8% almost double from 4 years ago, Bengazi, bowing to foreign leaders, aligning with our sworn enemy, and we still do not truly know if this charlatan is eligible to be president!

A lot of people think Sarah Palin would have, but when you poll that match-up, Palin loses like Mondale.

The facts are rino's are losers. Palin is theory. There's no argument or no debate about this! If conservatives put a candidate up nationally and they lose then we can talk, until them you're just blowing smoke.

72 posted on 11/08/2012 10:15:21 AM PST by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: Longbow1969
I'm stating facts. You're stating BS theory! If that's being a jerk, well then Yes, I am!

Tell me, did you tout Romney in the primaries?

Sure, tell that to Republicans in a state like say California.

I'm am talking "NATIONALLY"

I see you are not refuting the fact nationally rino's are losers, so my point is made.

73 posted on 11/08/2012 10:23:07 AM PST by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: sirchtruth
Tell me, did you tout Romney in the primaries?

No, he was one of my least favorite candidate (Ron Paul was my absolute least favorite). I don't really like Romney at all, though I'd concede he ran a decent campaign. Unfortunately we had a very weak field in the primaries. When a goofball like Herman Cain led our field for awhile, I knew we were in trouble.

I'm stating facts. You're stating BS theory! If that's being a jerk, well then Yes, I am!

No you're not, you are stating opinion. And yes, you are acting like a jerk.

By the way, GW Bush was a RINO too and he won 2 terms. The man spent just like a Democrat and even created a whole new entitlement program (Prescription Drugs).

You aren't making a good point at all, you are just retreating into a defensive posture because you don't want to accept that Republicans are going to have to take at least at the demographic changes and adjust what policies are front and center going forward.

74 posted on 11/08/2012 10:38:00 AM PST by Longbow1969
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