Posted on 11/07/2012 3:13:40 PM PST by NoLibZone
For the past year conservatives have put their trust in one pollster and one pollster alone. While nearly every other pollster showed President Obama leading throughout the last year’s presidential race, Rasmussen Reports consistently showed better numbers for Romney, and had Romney leading through much of the last month. Conservative pundits claimed that Rasmussen was the only pollster showing the true state of the race, even though previous studies suggested that Rasmussen’s numbers actually leaned too far to the right in previous elections. The Election Day results are now in, and Rasmussen was not only off in their projection, but far off in many cases. Consider the following numbers:
Rasmussen’s last national poll had Romney with a one point lead (49 percent to 48 percent). Obama ended up winning by two points (50 percent to 48 percent). Rasmussen had Romney winning Virginia by two points (50 percent to 48 percent). With 97 percent of precincts reporting Obama is winning Virginia by three points (51 percent to 48 percent). Rasmussen Reports final Iowa poll had Romney winning the state by one point (49 percent to 48 percent). With 96 percent of precincts reporting Obama is winning Iowa by six points (52 percent to 46 percent). Rasmussen had Romney and Obama tied at 49 percent in Wisconsin. With 98 percent of precincts reporting Obama is currently winning Wisconsin by seven points (53 percent to 46 percent). In Colorado, Rasmussen Reports had Romney winning by three points (50 percent to 47 percent). With 90 percent of precincts reporting Obama is winning Colorado by four points (51 percent to 47 percent). In Ohio, Rasmussen Reports had the race tied at 49 percent. With 90 percent of precincts reporting Obama is currently winning the state by two points (50 percent to 48 percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
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Maybe he got it exactly right, but failed to take into account Democrat election fraud?
I cancelled my premium membership to rasmussen today.
He is personna non-grata to me
The other polls turned out to be more realistic in the ginned up D vote.
If I saw their last poll correctly, Gallup got it wrong too. That’s make their 3rd miss since FDR.
No one counted on the Free Stuff effect.
two issues:
1) conservatives should not put up with second rate products or services just because the supplier is “conservative”
2) the polls in aggregate were wrong, the final average of the real clear polls was more than 3 standard deviations from the actual result
the thing about polls is that the non-sampling error is larger than the sampling error. the big errors are from non-response bias, likely voter identification, party weighting etc. these things are guesses and this election cycle’s hero will be next cycles goat
someone like Nate Silver can come up with an overfitted model that fits the past data well. its like economic forecasting, as long as future elections are similar to the past, he will be accurate. when there is a dramatic shift (like 1980) Nate Silver will never catch it, just like all the “blue chip” forecasters don’t ever forecast things like financial crises.
-PJ
“For the past year conservatives have put their trust in one pollster and one pollster alone.”
yeah we can’t do that anymore. There are no ‘wonder’ polls. Look at all the polls and not just from the guy who got it most right in the past.
Nate Silver may also be next year’s Rass if he’s all by himself. So don’t forget this.
Because he factors in voter fraud ...pure and simple
Absolutely, I’m sure they stole minimum 5 million votes - in the right places - to steal the election. Never can be convinced otherwise.
I honestly think it’s to the point where they just phone in phony numbers. Most polls had Romney up and up big in FL & VA. No one lookd at all surprised when that went to Obama.
And the big thing for me is that they’re saying the Republicans stayed home, didn’t turn out. I just flat out don’t believe that. If anyone stayed home it was Dems.
I don't discount that as a possibility. I don't think, even from the very start of his regime, 0bama felt he could win re-election without cheating, and I don't think he expected to win even up until yesterday. The electronic voting machines in use by most states are ripe for fraud. They can be programmed to do virtually anything.
You have to ask yourself, with the Country in such sad shape and with 0bama having absolutely nothing to run on, how did he achieve such a victory?
Not if there was some major organized election stealing. Trillions of dollars are at stake, after all.
And the big thing for me is that they’re saying the Republicans stayed home, didn’t turn out. I just flat out don’t believe that. If anyone stayed home it was Dems.
2008 Obama 69 million votes, McCain 59 Million
2012 obama 60 Million votes, Romney 57 Million
Numbers show both sides stayed home
Election fraud?
Rush Limbaugh rejected that explanation today. He basically said it was impossible to prove and there were other reasons that better explained the loss.
His explantion? America now numbers more takers than contributors.
I hope that Rasmussen wasn’t being political just to curry favor. I don’t want my intel section to be giving out soothing info. What could conservative workers have done if they knew that the obama minions were turning out in smaller numbers than previously, but still pretty large?
The RNC deserves a hit here because it shouldn’t matter which candidate wins a primary for them to know they should be setting up campaign centers throughout America’s precincts.
That strikes me as just about the only legitimate reason something like a republican national committe would have to exist. Their job should be sinking their organizational teeth into America’s precincts. Other than being a traffic cop, I really don’t see how it’s their business to be controlling who the candidates are. For every Akin horror story you tell, I’ll tell a Tommy Thompson story. One made a “right wing” misstep and lost. Apparently, the other lost, too, without a misstep. Which is actually worse?
We need to document the fraud and show the evidence to the world. The libs are saying there is little fraud and voter ID is just voter repression. We need FACTS to prove them wrong.
Maybe Rasmussen was dead right, but there was 2-3% cheating!
someone like Nate Silver can come up with an overfitted model that fits the past data well.
Because he factors in voter fraud ...pure and simple
is there anyone in their right mind who believes that after the dems believed bush stole 04, that they would not do anything to win?
and think about this. a bus can pull up to a polling place, in for example, inner city philly. a bunch of illegals get off, told how to vote, and the complicit poll workers register them right there.
question for all of you. do you think the lsm would report that? they know they can get away with it. as a matter of fact, we’re never going to win another election again.
the soviet union without using a single bullet.
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