Well,
1. This graphic of the exit polls compared to 2008 is very instructive:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/
Romney improved compared to McCain as you would expect with all segments of the populations except hispanics and Asian Americans. Romney improved with women, with men, with the youth, with blacks, with moderates, with independents, Jews, Catholics, etc.
The problem as I see it is two fold. Romney improved with those groups but not quite enough in FL, NH, OH, and VA. Both hispanics and Asian Americans moved against him pretty dramatically.
2. I guess with hispanics Americans the key issue is immigration. But with Asian Americans what is it. Is it respect for authority and the power of incumbency? I have seen little mention of this this year, not nearly as much as mentioned when other incumbent presidents have been running.
Still the party of self-reliance and hard work and God lost two immigrant groups who are known for hard work. This is particularly true of Asian Americans. Also hispanic American typically have values much closer to the GOP than the Democrats. The GOP and its presidential candidates must find a way to get its fair share of these voters. The GOP has with Roman Catholic voters, with Italian voters, with Irish voters, with various groups that in the past have been Democrat groups, so it can be done.
2. Traditionally weak campaigns pick VP candidates who have never won a statewide office. Statewide office holders smell a loser and do not sign up for VP with Goldwater, Mondale, ect. I do not think that was the case this time, but picking Ryan still could be viewed by some voters as a sign Romney was not a good candidate. Ultimately, Ryan brought nothing to the ticket. Romney appears plenty enough of a policy wonk that he did not need to add policy wonk cred to his ticket. Whether Rubio would have brought in Florida or Santorum Pennsylvania we can never know for sure, but Romney should have tried to make the VP choice count.
3. Romney’s ground game may not have been up to snuff. Since I posted last night he has at least surpassed McCain’s 2008 vote in VA. So maybe the early view on turnout is wrong, but what happened to the energy of 2010? Why wasn’t that tapped?
Thanks for the graph, it is as you say, instructive. I would like to know more about the internals since these exit polls can be notoriously inaccurate. Offhand, they look to reasonably reflect the voting patterns as they occurred.
I agree with your comments about the selection of Ryan. As I said in my vanity I think it was the physical embodiment of the decision to go strictly on economics in the campaign. I believe that decision left the Romney campaign vulnerable to distractions let loose by Obama which were magnified by the media. In effect, Obama was thus able to control the message. Romney was always on the defensive. The selection of Rubio probably would have broken the thing loose and Rubio might have been a very effective counterpuncher which is the traditional role of the vice presidential candidate. In the event, Ryan, to a lesser degree than Sarah Palin, was somewhat restricted in his freedom of criticism of Obama.
Interesting comments concerning Asian-Americans.
But with Asian Americans what is it I am married into an Asian family. I did not know this until I spent some time around Asians.They are the single, most racist people I have ever encountered. Bar none. Not just against white people but against each other.
My MIL can identify a person from Laos from a person from Vietnam from a Chinese person in one glance. And she'll have different reasons why they all suck. (she's Thai)
Having said that, if there is an undesirable Asian person --that person is immediately held in higher esteem than any white person.
Blacks? haaaaa --yeah. They hate them too.
This was all very eye opening to me because I always assumd we had so much more in common with American Asians that we had dfferences.