If Mitt wins PA *and* OH, or one of them and some combo of MI, WI, MN (all 3 unlikely) he may not need VA. We sure could use it though, especially seeing as how we can pick up a Senate seat there too if things go right.
There are other scenarios involving CO, NV, IA, NH, etc. that would mean VA isn’t needed. But VA is supposed to be a far more ‘red’ state than many of those I mentioned.
Yes, Virginia is redder, but the demographics are different. Virginia’s democrat base is African-American. That is the one contingent Obama hasn’t lost much support in.