Given that Intrade is European-based, has mostly European clients and it’s illegal to pay into Intrade using a debit or credit card issued by a US-based bank, I’d say those posting Intrade threads as some sort of bellweather should be flogged.
Present company excepted.
That said, it’s not uncommon at all for bookies, especially in the United Kingdom, to pay out early on bets.
the mathematics of probability work differently in the UK?