If I read this correctly there’s a 5pt difference, which if applied to the election day turnout means Obama wins by 2pt.
Now I know that’s not a fair comparison because GOP turnout has been historically better on election day than in early voting.
But it raises the question of what happens if it turns out that the increase in early voting is due to GOP voters shifting to early turnout and not indicative of much of an overall turnout increase?
Early voting is their strength, not ours.
The 260,000 advantage they had in the EV in 08 has been eliminated and it is likely that the Romney ground game will take Ohio outright today.