This poll is probably D+2.
Gallup decided to play it safe.
If its R+1 or R+2 tomorrow, Romney should skate safely home with plenty of electoral votes to spare.
Which brings us to the main question: will this election be closer to 2008 or closer to 2010?
I’m betting it’ll be closer to 2010.
Well the silver lining in this is that every Romney voter is going to show up on Tuesday. If Gallup still had Romney up by 5 or more, we could have some people staying home thinking Romney had it in the bag. But with a one point difference, this should fire up everybody who wants to see Obama gone.
There’s no way it’s like 2008 or 2010. Too many Obama-maniacs in 2008 and in a mid-term election with no “sexy” national candidate, the intelligent voters who pay attention to how politics affects their lives, a.k.a. the conservatives easily ruled the day.
This is looking much more like 2004, a close election where just one state like Ohio switching would have given the win to Kerry. I certainly wouldn’t predict beyond what Krauthammer and Hannity are saying, a narrow 270-290 Romney win.
However, I’m afraid that, just as in 2004, negativism against the incumbent won’t be enough to carry the day. The opposition party also needs a candidate they admire on his own merits. Romney was nowhere near that 3 months ago. He improved with the first debate, but did no better than treading water since then.
Agreed!
There are most likely a lot more people who identify themselves as Democrats who will vote Romney than the other way around.
Then D+2 wins it for Romney, as I said it would on Sunday.
Taking Gallup D+2 at 49-48 the election is Romney's, because Ohio GOP PV is equal to or greater than National GOP PV for 3 straight elections. No Ohio for Bobo, no path to victory...