Posted on 11/04/2012 2:19:55 PM PST by Political Junkie Too
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October 27, 2012
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Premier - July 4, 2012
Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
This Edition's Updates:
The Race for the White House
In this final report, the anticipated Romney surge has not happened, at least according to Rasmussen's polls. Obama's Electoral College count remains at 243 Electoral Votes, and Romney's remains at 261, with 34 EV up for grabs. Romney's lead is soft, however, because he has to defend 46 Leaning Electoral Votes to Obama's 6. Obama has a stronger base of 237 Electoral Votes to Romney's 215.
Probabilistically, Romney has 266.9 Electoral Votes (P90 is 292), and a 45.4% chance of winning. If I add a Democrat poll bias adjustment to the model, Romney has 294.9 EV (and a P90 of 317) with an 86.7% chance of winning.
This week, Rasmussen polled Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Absent swing-states in the final week are Florida (R +2%), Nevada (R -2%), New Hampshire (R +2%), and Virginia (R +2%). Perhaps current polls in this state would show Romney pulling away, and would pull the model over the line for Romney? I think so, since this is what the bias adjustment essentially does.
In Colorado, Romney is holding his lead on Obama. Romney remained steady at 50%. Obama gained +1% to 47%. Colorado would move from Strong to lean for Romney, but the MOE moved from 4.5% to 4.0%, keeping Colorado Strong for Romney.
In Indiana, the race tightened in the closing week, but not enough for Obama. Romney lost -2% to 52%, and Obama gained +2% to 43%. Indiana is Safe for Romney.
In Iowa, Romney gained another +1% and Obama held his position, breaking the tie. Iowa is now 49%-48% for Romney, and remains a Toss-up.
In Massachusetts, a re-poll from two weeks shows Obama growing his 57% to 59%, while Romney shrinks his 42% to 40%. Massachusetts is Safe for Obama.
In Michigan, a re-poll from three weeks ago shows Romney gaining +2% to 47%. Obama stays at 52%. Michigan remains Strong for Obama.
In Montana, a re-poll from two weeks ago shows Romney keeping his 53% and Obama losing -2% to 43%.. Montana remains Safe for Romney.
In Ohio, a re-poll from last week shows each candidate gaining +1%, keeping the race tied at 49%. Ohio remains a Toss-up.
In Wisconsin, the fourth week of polls has the race unchanged from last week's 49% tie. Wisconsin remains a Toss-Up.
Below is the latest round of state poll movements. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Summary of Electoral College breakdown
Obama - 243 | Romney - 261 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
55 | California | 7 | Connecticut | 6 | Nevada | 6 | Iowa | 29 | Florida | 9 | Colorado | 9 | Alabama |
3 | District of Columbia | 16 | Michigan | 18 | Ohio | 4 | New Hampshire | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska | ||
3 | Delaware | 20 | Pennsylvania | 10 | Wisconsin | 13 | Virginia | 15 | North Carolina | 11 | Arizona | ||
4 | Hawaii | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||||
20 | Illinois | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||||
4 | Maine | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
10 | Maryland | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
11 | Massachusetts | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
10 | Minnesota | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
14 | New Jersey | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
5 | New Mexico | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||
29 | New York | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||
7 | Oregon | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||
4 | Rhode Island | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||
3 | Vermont | 10 | Missouri | ||||||||||
12 | Washington | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||
3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||||
11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||
38 | Texas | ||||||||||||
6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
194 | 43 | 6 | 34 | 46 | 40 | 175 | |||||||
2008 Final Results
Link to 2008 Final Election Map
Current State Leanings
Link to Current Electoral College Map
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 Election | 180 | 180 | 180 | 0.00% |
12-May-12 | 193 | 220.73 | 248 | 0.16% |
19-May-12 | 197 | 225.09 | 248 | 0.23% |
26-May-12 | 206 | 232.72 | 256 | 1.21% |
02-Jun-12 | 216 | 242.46 | 266 | 4.43% |
09-Jun-12 | 221 | 247.73 | 275 | 14.02% |
16-Jun-12 | 230 | 257.37 | 282 | 28.95% |
23-Jun-12 | 231 | 257.92 | 282 | 30.10% |
30-Jun-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
07-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
14-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
21-Jul-12 | 219 | 248.33 | 276 | 16.46% |
28-Jul-12 | 215 | 244.1 | 272 | 11.78% |
04-Aug-12 | 216 | 245.64 | 273 | 12.75% |
11-Aug-12 | 215 | 245.24 | 273 | 12.05% |
18-Aug-12 | 225 | 255.61 | 282 | 25.11% |
25-Aug-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 21.52% |
01-Sep-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 22.08% |
08-Sep-12 | 224 | 252.45 | 281 | 21.66% |
15-Sep-12 | 221 | 249.88 | 278 | 17.54% |
22-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.98 | 278 | 20.34% |
29-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.04 | 277 | 19.04% |
06-Oct-12 | 225 | 253.31 | 279 | 21.00% |
13-Oct-12 | 233 | 258.74 | 283 | 27.69% |
20-Oct-12 | 242 | 264.04 | 285 | 35.65% |
27-Oct-12 | 238 | 265.95 | 291 | 44.18% |
03-Nov-12 | 238 | 266.85 | 292 | 45.37% |
And over in the Senate...
The Republican GOP Senate campaign gave up the slight gains from last week, giving back the one seat they picked up. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate before the conventions.
This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.
The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.
As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 7.4% for Republicans taking over. If I add the same Democrat bias correction as above, the Seneate becomes a 52-48 take-over for Republicans, with an 75% chance of occuring.
Since the last report, Rasmussen polled Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin Senate races. Again, the absence of swing-state Senate polling may be keeping the Republican count down.
In Connecticut, Republican McMahon lost -2% and Democrat Murphy gained +3%, making the race now a 51%-45% lead for Murphy. Connecticut is a Hold for Democrats.
In Florida, Republican Mack gained +3% from two weeks ago, while Democrat Nelson gained +1%. Florida is a 49%-46% Hold for Democrats.
In Indiana, Republican Mourdock gave up 47%-42% lead over Democrat Donnelly, now trailing by 45%-42%. Indiana is now a Pick-Up for Democrats.
In Montana, Republican Rehberg kept his 48% from last week, but Democrat Tester gained + 1% to break the tie, making Montana a 49%-48% Hold for Democrats.
In Ohio, a fourth week of polling has the Democrat Brown holding onto his 48%, while Republican Mandel gained +4%, making the race a 48% tie.
In Wisconsin, Republican Thompson held onto his 48%, and Democrat Baldwin gained back +2%. The race is now 48% tie.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 Election | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0.00% | 0 |
12-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
19-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
26-May-12 | 49 | 50.75 | 52 | 58.53% | 3 |
02-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.63 | 52 | 54.34% | 3 |
09-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
16-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
23-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
30-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
07-Jul-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
14-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.04 | 54 | 91.10% | 5 |
21-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.19 | 54 | 92.42% | 5 |
28-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.17 | 54 | 92.18% | 5 |
04-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.33 | 53 | 75.39% | 4 |
11-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.43 | 53 | 78.01% | 4 |
18-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.76 | 53 | 84.33% | 4 |
25-Aug-12 | 51 | 52.59 | 54 | 95.05% | 5 |
01-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.53% | 4 |
08-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.46% | 4 |
15-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.19 | 53 | 73.42% | 4 |
22-Sep-12 | 48 | 49.83 | 51 | 30.40% | 2 |
29-Sep-12 | 47 | 48.79 | 50 | 9.26% | 1 |
06-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.49 | 50 | 4.63% | 1 |
13-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.74 | 50 | 8.42% | 1 |
20-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.62 | 50 | 5.51% | 1 |
27-Oct-12 | 48 | 49.37 | 51 | 19.18% | 2 |
3-Nov-12 |
Link to Senate Probability Chart
-PJ
-PJ
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 Election | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0.00% | 0 |
12-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
19-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
26-May-12 | 49 | 50.75 | 52 | 58.53% | 3 |
02-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.63 | 52 | 54.34% | 3 |
09-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
16-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
23-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
30-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
07-Jul-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
14-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.04 | 54 | 91.10% | 5 |
21-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.19 | 54 | 92.42% | 5 |
28-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.17 | 54 | 92.18% | 5 |
04-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.33 | 53 | 75.39% | 4 |
11-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.43 | 53 | 78.01% | 4 |
18-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.76 | 53 | 84.33% | 4 |
25-Aug-12 | 51 | 52.59 | 54 | 95.05% | 5 |
01-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.53% | 4 |
08-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.46% | 4 |
15-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.19 | 53 | 73.42% | 4 |
22-Sep-12 | 48 | 49.83 | 51 | 30.40% | 2 |
29-Sep-12 | 47 | 48.79 | 50 | 9.26% | 1 |
06-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.49 | 50 | 4.63% | 1 |
13-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.74 | 50 | 8.42% | 1 |
20-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.62 | 50 | 5.51% | 1 |
03-Nov-12 | 47 | 48.49 | 50 | 7.35% | 1 |
-PJ
Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
10/28/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
---|---|---|---|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold OR Gain |
NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
WI* | Tommy Thompson | Tammy Baldwin | GAIN |
NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
AZ* | Jeff Flake | Richard Carmona | HOLD |
MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester | GAIN |
MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
FL | Connie Mack | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
CT* | Linda McMahon | Chris Murphy | GAIN |
PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
MO | Todd Akin | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
MI | Pete Hoekstra | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
HI* | Linda Lingle | Mazie Hirono | GAIN |
ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
*Open Seat +Incumbent |
I have been watching these polls anxiously for months now and this is what I have learned: There will be an election Tuesday and either Obama or Romney will win it. Has anyone learned anything else?
What a waste of time.
If all the swing states come in at 52-48 or 51-49, then we'll know that the polling was right.
If they come in at 55-45 or wider, then we'll know that the polling was meant to astroturf Obama's popularity.
-PJ
Are you kidding? Tell that to the political operatives on both sides who have to have some means of making decisions regarding the allocation of their resources in order to win. Trust me, at this level, a national campaign cannot simply act on its "gut." I don't disagree that polling is never an exact science but it is incredibly useful even though all poll results should be taken with a grain of salt.
PJ, thanks for all the hard work. It has been very insightful over the weeks. Now we just get to wait a couple of days to see how right or wrong the polling community was.
It is fine for political professionals setting strategy day by day. They have to know what seems to be working and what is not. Of course they cannot work “ on their gut.” They have their own private polls for those purposes. But what good does it do us to watch polls jump around for weeks only to discover that they are inconclusive a few days before an election?
Just like how the MSM knows that we're on to their schemes, we'll soon see if the pollsters need to learn the same lesson.
Are they reflecting sentiment or trying to create sentiment that isn't there?
-PJ
I think you already know this, but that may be moving the "bias" too far in the other direction. Maybe this election will come out somewhere in between the 2008 and 2010 results. It's easy for conservatives to believe that O will not get anything beyond the 20% nutcase vote, but we have a lot of ignorant voters out there.
I am confident you know much more about the details than I do.
-PJ
Sounds reasonable. This is a very strange election, and more surprises may be coming. A real challenge for pollsters.
"God created pollsters to make astrologers look good." - John Kasich
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