Also missing in the MSM reporting is how many dems who voted early voted for Romney....
My guess is lots and lots did...
Huge increases in early voting only matter if it affects the final vote tally. That’s the question: would these early voters NOT have voted on election day?
I’m certain Romney is going to win big, but I could care less about who decides to get in line first to vote.
Very good analysis. Another would be to take the counties won by kerry/obama and compare to bush/mccain counties. Swing counties would be bush/obama counties. Their increase may indicate increased republican enthusiasm not necessarily democratic.
Another point to keep in mind. That’s what wasserman has been doing in VA for cook political.
Time for people to ‘buck up’ and stay strong!!!
Missing from the analysis will be the fact that, there are a lot of democrats with a lot of time on their hands, and so, have a lot more free time to go vote, while, republicans are busy earning a living, and won’t have as much time to head to the early election sites.
Similar in dynamic in Nevada.
That’s even before people get to the polls Tuesday.
Nothing indicates O’s Campaign is in good shape.
The polls only conceal the state of its collapse. People have no clue as to what’s going on.
Bill Cunningham on Hannity 11/2/2012 (Romney will win Ohio and Wisconsin)
http://barracudabrigade.blogspot.com/2012/11/obamas-katrina-bill-cunningham-with.html
Last night Michael Barone on "Huckabee" said that the increased 2012 turnout in small Republican counties would allow Romney to win Ohio.
There is no early voting in PA, and where I live there isn't a Romney ground game. I live in a Republican county, that went for McCain in 2008, but a lot of Republicans voted for Obama and some stayed home. From what I have observed, the lost Republican vote is coming home. County wide, this probably amounts to 5 to 6 thousand votes going to Romney that McCain didn't get in 2008. If that repeats itself for other 60 Republican counties in PA, Romney is going to win. (BTW, PA is a red state on the county level. There are only 7 or so really Democratic counties in the state)
FWIW. Here’s a local article (Portage co. OH) which went to Obama in 08 (54-46). I believe the Repub uptick is due to the hard work of our local Teaparty group. We are very organized and relentless. All polling stations will have members present on election day from open to close. I’m scheduled for the morning, will check in and give updates. My instincts are telling me Portage is going to Romney.
GOP surge surpasses Dems on Portage voter rolls
By Mike Sever | staff writer/Record Courier
Portage County’s majority political organization is now the Republican Party although far more voters remain unaffiliated with eithe GOP or the Democrats, according to voter registration statistics from the county board of elections.
As of Monday, Oct. 22, registration totaled 108,287 voters, a 4,540 increase from the spring primary election.
That total was split among 14,206 registered Republicans and 9,973 Democrats. That’s a 5,864 voter increase for the GOP and a 1,612 drop for Democrats from the primary.
The number of voters who declared no party affiliation was 84,043, a minimal 223 registration increase from the primary.
The numbers will change by Election Day, according to Faith Lyon, director of the Portage County Board of Elections. The local board is still processing registration info it receives from the Secretary of State in Columbus. Workers also are verifying the status of people who filed changes of address and making sure voters do not have duplicate registrations, Lyon said.
http://www.recordpub.com/news/article/5225009
Yeah; as usual, the Dem's in Cuyahoga have voted early, and MANY will vote again at the Polls on Tuesday, for The Messiah....count on it.
Let me spell out the (obvious) case why Romney will trounce Obama in Ohio:
1) Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5%. McCain was a terrible, under-funded candidate; Obama was fresh, unknown, and NOT Bush. Four years later, Obama is a known quantity with a bad economic record and a ton of baggage. He obviously is in worse political shape than 2008.
2) Every state that borders Ohio is either overwhelmingly for Romney/Ryan, or is obviously moving in that direction. West Va. dems voted 43% for a FELON in the dem primary in May. Kentucky dems voted 41% “uncommitted” instead of for Obama. Obama won Indiana by a point in 2008; he will lose by 15 to 20 points this year. And now credible polls are showing that Romney is within strking distance in Pa. and Mich. Does anyone reasonably believe that the Ohio border somehow magically seals off the discontent for Obama in bordering states? I don’t think so.
3) The biggest myth about Obama’s 2008 win was that there was this massive turnout for dems. Not so. In fact, Obama rec’d far less votes than John Kerry. There was a precipitous drop-off of working-class white dems in Ohio, and an even bigger drop-off of Republicans and evangelicals. Does anyone reasonably expect that blue collar white dems are going to come roaring out for Obama in 2012. Hell no. He never had these John Kerry-democrats, and he never will get them. Obama’s big problem is that blacks, students, young people, etc. won’t post, which is what we are seeing in the early vote numbers.
4) Obama is weaker with every demographic. He will lose a small percentage of jewish votes around Cleveland and Cincinnat; his gay marriage stance will cost him a small sliver of black votes; conservative Catholics in Southern Ohio are ticked off about the contraception mandate. Please, someone out there name me one demographic group that Obama is doing better with in 2012? White, female reporters who work for MSNBC?
5) Ohio is a Republican state. Republican candidates in Ohio always outperform the national polls by 2 to 3 percent.
6) I’m from Cincinnati, but in I live in the DC suburbs. Obama is playing non-stop abortion and gay rights ads on Northern Virginia radio. His campaign obviously sees that turnout among the young dingbats is dicey. Imagine what we would be thinking if Romney were running pro-life and pro-gun ads in the week before the election.
So, please, everyone stop worrying about Ohio. Just get out and vote.
But I can run an analysis, and did so on absentees only (not early votes). I can't post because of formatting. If someone can post a Word document, I'm happy to send you what SoftwareEngineer put some of it in Excel, but only did 10, and this does not include Cuyahoga or Franklin).
Conclusions of my mini-study:
*I looked at the first 27 OH counties alphabetically, which includes Franklin, Clark, and Cuyahoga.
*The hypothesis is that if you automatically lose your party ID because you don't vote in a primary, then a decline of 30,000 Ds from 2008 should be offset by an increase of 30,000 Is in 2012. Didn't happen, except in two cases, Adams and Columbiana. There, large D decreases were matched with large I increases. But in Champaign, Ds lost 71% from 08, but Is only rose 11%. Cuyahoga lost .08% but Is only increased .04%. (Rs gained 30%)
*Franklin Ds fell 30%, but Is fell as well, only at -17%.
In short, it's very hard to find a "swap out" explanation for the D declines in OH.
We know from Barone that obama is having to get his normal reliable Tuesday voters to vote early to try and create an air of some semblance of momentum somewhere to spin. Some of that early vote will be normal Tuesday voters not voting... so the turnout on Tuesday for the dims will be less than predicted. Barone is correct.
LLS
sfl
I also think that not all of the “Democrats” will be voting for Obama, wheras I think virtually all of the “Republicans” will be voting for Romney (with a small contengent of Ron Paul/libertarian nuttos voting for Gary Johnson)!~
There is another factor in Romney’s favor in states like Ohio - it is the SECRET BALLOT... A fair number of people who are surrounded my die hard Democrats (neighbors, family, friends and coworkers) just do not want to argue, be ridiculed or be castigated by others for doing something common sense like vote AGAINST obama. The Secret Ballot means that others may wonder or even be rude and ask - but one does not have to tell... In this Cable/Satellite TV News, Talk Radio and Internet era... it is neigh on impossible not to be exposed to the truth... Many will never debate others, put up a sign or slap on a bumper sticker... but they vote their conscience in private - Silent Independents.
If Cuyahoga and Summit are close to 2008 numbers, what does that say to those who told us that Democratic enthusiasm isn’t as strong in 2012 as it was in 2008?
The Rats have thousands of SEIU, NEA union members, ACLU types, NARAL, Planned Parenthood, LGBT and Rainbow Coalition, high school and college kids and by one report even illegals impressed into their ground game with fleet loads of buses taking even the homeless and mentally retarded to the polls. Do the Republican have a ground game to match?
That is the type of information Barone uses in his predictions. The shifting local demographics.