[ez]

The incumbent always gets 1-2 points in the last week of the race. That is when the 1/3 of the undecideds that he can expect make up their minds. The rest (2/3) will choose Romney when they are standing over the ballot.

[shhrubbery!]

The incumbent always gets 1-2 points in the last week of the race. That is when the 1/3 of the undecideds that he can expect make up their minds. The rest (2/3) will choose Romney when they are standing over the ballot.

Thanks for the explanation.

I guess this is what some pollsters (Caddell, Schoen) call the "last week incumbent's bump"?