[nathanbedford]

What do you make of Rasmussen's statement on Fox last night that he has Democrats +2?

He has Wisconsin, for example, tied at 49. Do I assume that he is applying his 2%, which I presume to be a national number, equally in each state? Is there any reason to believe that that is a valid procedure? I note that he has Republicans +3 on congressional preference and it seems anomalous to me that the overall preference would be +2 Democrat. Finally, what does this measure, merely a preference expressed in general terms by the electorate or is Rasmussen predicting turnout?

Am I wasting time concerning myself about these preference numbers when, as you point out, the approval numbers are far more predictive?

[SoftwareEngineer]

Nathan,

Hi! So, here is the disconnect.

When Rasmussen polls and asks people, they say that they are R+2 or R+3. That is what has FReepers so excited

However, that being said, that is ONLY indicative of the general populace. That MAY NOT reflect the actual turnout.

What Rasmussen seems to be saying is that the President’s team is more organized and will get more people out to vote. His “vaunted ground effort”

So, he is saying that despite the R’s being more numerous this time around, more D’s will show up and vote

Now, there are many like LS, NHWinGut, Ravi etc who will disagree with that assertion, as they feel that the R’s are very motivated

The phrase to watch is “Broken glass Republicans”. Republicans so committed to voting that they will crawl over broken glass to get to the voting booth

[tcrlaf]

Black Inner-City talk radio is absolutely SCREAMING for blacks to go vote for “Brother Obama”, as one put it yesterday, complete with all the race-baiting dog-whistles we have come to expect from these people.

In addition, Pacifica is in a COMPLETE frenzy to get out the vote for Obama, too.