Posted on 10/31/2012 12:02:57 PM PDT by rightcoast
With all the problems Jimmy Carter faced that year, it's hardly surprising that he was soundly beaten by Republican challenger Ronald Reagan in the presidential election of 1980. What is remarkable is that just a week before Election Day, the contest was a dead heat. "People think of the 1980 election as this huge landslide for Reagan, which in terms of the numbers, it was," remembers journalist Elizabeth Drew. "But I saw the numbers on the Friday before the election -- and both sides will tell you this -- it was a tie."
(Excerpt) Read more at pbs.org ...
In the media it was a tie.
In reality Pat Caddell told Carter the Thursday before that he was gonna get whomped. And he ended up being very close to the actual vote totals.
ping
It’s not surprising since the media was just as biased then as it is now. The surprise was that Reagan was able to overcome it without all the extra help Romney has today. It’s a big indicator of how unpopular Carter had become by election day that he could get stomped even with all of the advantages he had. I think Obama is about to suffer the same fate.
This is an over-generalization, but for this purpose the polls mostly equals the media. That’s my main point - just a point of reference and perspective here...
Sadly this election will be nothing like that. This nation is too far gone I think. If we haven’t crossed the tipping point of dependency yet, we are extremely close. If Romney wins, it will be just barely. The RCP average has been almost dead on the last 2 election cycles. It’s got Mitt up .8% right now. Whatever the final RCP average is, the election will likely be within 1 point of that. A nailbiter either way.
How accurate have the RCP state averages been?
That’s my recollection also and I’ve noted the similarities to this year. The demographics have changed in 32 years but I think the undecideds will vote for change, like they did in 1980. I remember coming home and turning on NBC to a map of blue (back then the blue states were GOP). I still have that videotape somewhere.
Plus the fact that Romney is no conservative...
Within 1 point in 2004 and 2008.
Obama is in NJ because he knows he lost the election, and he’s simply saving face - wants his term to end on a high-note, “helping others”.
Mitt is in Wis/Pen/etc cause he knows he’s got it in the bag, and wants it to be as decisive as possible.
The candidates already know who’s won. Obama seemed really pissed off lately - probably because he was having to deal with his wife and figuring out where they were gonna move to. That’s a pain the butt for anyone.
I remember that conversation taking place between the two on the plane ride from Oregon or Washington back to D.C. much closer to election day. Nevertheless, one of the few events that I would have liked to have attended was when this conversation took place. It was said Carter went into shock. That was a priceless moment.
It was incredible indeed and wasn’t that late at night, Central time as I recall. I had just bought my first VCR that day and home to set it up to record the results of this supposedly “tight election” By then it was all over, Hallelujah!
I think Romney will win by the skin of his teeth.
somewhere around 279 electoral votes
I found it:
As recalled in Dominic Sandbrook’s excellent history of the late 1970s, Mad as Hell: The Crisis of the 1970s and the Rise of the Populist Right , President Carter’s chances for a second term — despite the Iran hostage crisis, a lousy economy and terrible approval ratings — were apparently alive and well until the final days of the 1980 campaign.
Going into the final weekend of the campaign, Sandbrook writes, Gallup had Carter’s Republican opponent, Ronald Reagan, up three points. Harris had him up five points, while Newsweek and The Washington Post had Carter up one.
But at the end, the bottom fell out for Carter. “I’ve never seen anything like it in polling,” said Pat Caddell, Carter’s pollster. What was a close race turned into a big Reagan lead in the last hours of the campaign; he ended up winning 489 electoral votes and a 51%-41% victory over Carter. Likely aiding Reagan at the end was the one and only debate between the two, held just a week before the election, when Reagan memorably asked voters “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Another factor: negotiations to release American hostages in Iran broke down just a couple days before the election. “I wish that I could predict when the hostages will return,” Carter told the nation the Sunday before the election. “I cannot.”
IIRC Carter conceded before the polls closed on the West Coast.
This election is not going to be close. Romney will win by 5-6 points and get over 300 EV. The RCP average isn't worth a plug nickle. It's GIGO, garbage in, garbage out. The average is only as good as the polls that comprise it and most of them are garbage. It's also an average of polls some of which are weeks old. That means it lags behind reality...significantly. All the momentum in this race is with Romney and the RCP average has yet to pick that up.
This is not 2008. This is the first election following 2010 which was an historic repudiation of obama and liberalism in general. You think 2010 was a fluke? You think we won back the House by accident? What about the gubernatorial elections in NJ and VA? Both states went for obama and a year laster elected GOP Gov's. What about Scott Brown taking fat Teddy's Senate seat? Did he win because the rats didn't really care? No! We won all these races because the nation...already in 2009 and 2010 was regretting the colossal act of stupidity that put obama in the White House.
We're going to win next week. I'll stake my life on it, and I'm going to work every night this week and all weekend long to hekp make it happen!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.