QP/NY Times/CBS Polls (O+5 OH, O+1 FL, O+2 VA)

CBS News ^ | 10/31 | Sarah Dutton

[Luke21]

In 1988, the entire media colluded with Dukakis campaign manager John Sasso to manufacture a bogus Dukakis comeback. Supposedly the message and slogan “I'm on your side” was sweeping the country. Lou Harris called the race “a dead heat” on election day. Bush senior won forty states.

The media lies. It's what they do.

[Shamrock498]

it was actually D+8 in 2008 party identification poll.

here is a link to the source. notice 2012 looks more like 2004:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

[ScottinVA]

“Maybe Romney isn’t the ultimate answer here, but I relish the thought of a major MSM defeat. IMHO they are about as big of a threat to the country’s future as the socialists are. They enable and run cover for the socialists. “

I couldn’t agree more!

[newnhdad]

this is such great news for Obama, now the democrats can just stay home because his lead is so large their votes are not needed. Right?

(sarc)

[goldstategop]

Gallup shows a D+10 Democratic advantage in 2008.

In 2004, GOP voters had an R+2 advantage, this year its a R+1.

If all things are equal, it will be 51-46 or 52-45. I don’t think its going be quite the landslide on here some are predicting.

This will be a very close election.

[CA Conservative]

Let’s see... It takes a D+7 sample to give Obama a one point lead in Florida; an D+8 sample to give him a 2=point lead in Virginia; and a D+8 sample to give him a 5-point lead in Ohio.

All in all, it looks like Romney is kicking butt. Even a more rational D+4 sample would show Romney in the lead in Florida and Virginia, and if the turnout is really R+1 as Ras and Gallup are saying, even Ohio is in the Romney column.

I love the smell of lib desperation in the morning. It smells like - victory!

[Shamrock498]

yeah, sorry i cant seem to do simple math this morning.

I agree i could see romney winning by 5 since even the D skewed polls show him winning Indy’s by about 10 pts on average.

I dont know if you saw this post on redstate or not but it’s pretty informative.

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/

take care

[The Hound Passer]

Well, I’m not prepared to go all dystopian just yet. The ship can, must be righted. A lot of people were duped by Obama’s rhetorical skill in ‘08 but he didn’t transform the U.S. in the way they interpreted him — it was all subjective in ‘08. I think at least a slim majority still hold true “American Values,” and Romney has a chance to be the right president at the right time, just as Reagan was. The U.S. was in pretty dire straights when he took the presidency too.

[sam_paine]

The U.S. was in pretty dire straights when he took the presidency too.

Very few of the people who voted for Carter thought that Soviet Communism was the way to go forward.

I'm not dystopian Eeyore either, but we've got to realize that the election in 2008 was not a turning point in the electorate, it was just a mirror of what has been happening. 2010 did not turn us back either.

[central_va]

Six more days, people. Six more days.

My liver will never make it.

[The Hound Passer]

I have lots of “Ds by birth” friends. They are left of center and admit to being duped by O... a tough lump of coal for them to admit to me. They do not believe in a socialist America that Obama wants, they only falsely believe the D’s care more about the middle class and the Rs are economic Darwinists.

Impossible for 2010 to right the ship — we only won one chamber. The Ds still had firm hold of the WH and Senate. But it did prevent further erosion of our liberties and economic rights. Imagine the debt ceiling debate if Rs had not won in 2010. It’s hard b/c there would have been no debate and O would have even more phony $ to buy people free cell phones.

2012 is no quick fix either, esp. if Rs don’t take the Senate. Even if they do it won’t be fillibuster proof but at least they’ll control the agenda and also can control the vote for any S.Ct. resignations. These are all steps in the right direction. This mess was created over decades. It’s gonna take a few election cycles to dig out.

[andy58-in-nh]

My liver will never make it.

LOL. I hear you, cousin. I may need to detox for a week, like Lindsay Lohan after a Hollywood crash-and-burn bender.

[central_va]

You wouldn’t believe what I am putting in my coffee these days.

[CA Conservative]

Let's take a look at the numbers. Here's the way these three states stack up in the CBS poll with the D+7 and D+8 samples:

	Partisan Breakdown			Independents		GOP		Democrat		Total
	GOP	Dem	Ind	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama
FL	30	37	29	14.21	12.76	27.9	1.8	2.96	32.93	45.07	47.49
VA	27	35	35	19.95	12.6	25.11	1.62	1.05	33.6	46.11	47.82
OH	29	37	30	14.7	12.9	26.39	2.03	2.22	34.04	43.31	48.97

Here is the way the numbers break down if you assume a D+3 sample in each state, and still use the split on independents used by CBS, which is about 10 points more favorable to Obama than Gallup and Rasmussen:

	Partisan Breakdown			Independents		GOP		Democrat		Total
	GOP	Dem	Ind	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama
FL	32	35	29	14.21	12.76	29.76	1.92	2.8	31.15	46.77	45.83
VA	30	33	35	19.95	12.6	27.9	1.8	0.99	31.68	48.84	46.08
OH	32	35	30	14.7	12.9	29.12	2.24	2.1	32.2	45.92	47.34

And here are the numbers if you assume an R+1 turnout, per the Rasmussen and Gallup models, even still using the ridiculous independent split in the CBS poll:

	Partisan Breakdown			Independents		GOP		Democrat		Total
	GOP	Dem	Ind	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney	Obama
FL	34	33	29	14.21	12.76	31.62	2.04	2.64	29.37	48.47	44.17
VA	32	31	35	19.95	12.6	29.76	1.92	0.93	29.76	50.64	44.28
OH	34	33	30	14.7	12.9	30.94	2.38	1.98	30.36	47.62	45.64

As you can see, these polls are nothing more than propaganda designed to drive a narrative.

[sam_paine]

I have lots of “Ds by birth” friends. They are left of center and admit to being duped by O

Isn't that the main problem we have right there?