[CA Conservative]

Also, a 3 point jump from D+3 to D+6 would cost Romney nearly 3 points in the tracking poll over a 3 day period. We saw no such jump. So I’m sticking to the D+3 theory.

I disagree that there was "no such jump". Over the last week, we saw the Rasmussen poll take the following path:

Romney - Obama
50 46 Tuesday
50 46 Wednesday
50 47 Thursday
50 46 Friday
50 46 Saturday
50 47 Sunday
49 47 Monday
49 47 Tuesday

So since Saturday, we have seen Obama go up and Romney go down. Now it may just be a good Obama polling day was in there. However, that much of a move could also be the result of a 3% change in party identification starting at about Saturday.

[InterceptPoint]

So since Saturday, we have seen Obama go up and Romney go down. Now it may just be a good Obama polling day was in there. However, that much of a move could also be the result of a 3% change in party identification starting at about Saturday.

Hmmmmmm.

You could be right. The math is correct. But ...

We have it on pretty darn good authority that it's still D+3 (Rasmussen Subscriber). And, the D+6 rumor started well over a week ago so it would have had to change the Raz numbers much sooner if it was in place say 10 days ago.