[nhwingut]

why does RAS weight like that then? If his own party ID split is different?

It's the million dollar question. It's frustrating that his own surveys show a R+2.6 and yet he re-weights it to a D+3 - almost a 6 point swing.

In the past (i.e. 2008) he always used his party id survey for his daily polling. I mean isn't that the purpose of the party id survey? That's what Gallup does. They do not weight. They use what they get. And they are getting R+1. That's why it is unlikely that Romney will ever drop in the Gallup poll with that sample, and a week to go.

My opinion is that Rasmussen (who takes heat from the left) is hedging his bets, and being conservative.

If Romney ends up being up 3-4 in the final D+3 Rasmussen poll, add an extra 3 points. That's why I think it'll be 52-47 for Romney.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

That’s been my explanation to friends.

Rasmussen has a reputation to uphold in terms of accuracy, but he also has a business presence & narrative.

No one can ever prove you were wrong 2 weeks before the election.

If I’m Rasmussen, I’m thinking ‘stay close enough to the truth that I can veer towards it a few days prior to election, but stay within the pack, giving me the most options.’

‘Hedge’ and ‘conservative’ are the exact two words I’ve probably used 10 times in emails to explain to friends in the past week ...

Thanks!