I’ve heard Liberals say that On October 27th 2000 GALLUP poll had Bush up by 13.
Anybody checked this?
No way. But Bush was up by 4 or so, I think, then the late surprise about his drunken driving episode or something like that happened over the weekend and all the undecideds started breaking for Gore.
True,
But remember the October Surprise of the BUSH DWI being unsealed. Cost W at least five points. Maybe more. Especially among women. He was already battling that “Frat Boy” spoiled rich kid image, as well as allegations of drug use. The DWI confirmed the worst fears about him. Unsealing records is high on the Dem playbook. Not gonna work this year.
I do remember Gallup had Bush up big over Gore at one point, but I don’t think it was this late in the game.
Until a month or so before the election, Gallup does no screening for likely voters and tends to get wide variations in their results. As election day approaches, they go to their likely voter model and the results get much more accurate.
Be interesting to see a link that showed Bush up that big with Gallup that close to election day, but I doubt such a thing exists.
Never mind. I found it.
Interesting to say the least.
http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/
The 2000 Gallup rolling poll was all over the map and had Bush as the final winner. However the 2008 poll was much more consistent and accurate. Both polls are on this page I’m sticking to the thought that Gallup has worked out the bugs since 2000.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx