And yet Rasmussen is using a D+6 sample in his tracking poll. I highly doubt Scott is in the tank for Obummer. For some reason, virtually EVERY polling outfit is picking up this fairly significant D+ party self-ID disparity. Almost every one of them is also picking up dramatic leads for Romney amongst Independents. You do the math.
“Almost every one of them is also picking up dramatic leads for Romney amongst Independents. You do the math.”
It seems to be common knowledge that alot of republicans have changed their id to independent....except it didn’t happen.
Looking at Rasmussen’s own poll, the percent of people who self identify as GOP went....up! And the percent of people who identify as Dem went down. These NEW independents are not stealth GOP voters, whom they should try to avoid overcounting. They are disappointed democrats...and the models we are seeing are indeed double counting them.
We saw the Dem +6 number posted here...and many asked for a source. I have not seen it yet, so for now I don’t know if Rasmussen is really using this. If he is, I disagree with him. His own party id poll contradicts this, and the mid-term turnout contradicts this. And anecdotally, one can observe that the crowd turnout for Obama rallies is way down from 2008, which he won by 7.2%...does anybody really think his enthusiasm is still that high, or even half that high?
All of these polls (with the exception of Gallup) are alot like trying to formulate the next year’s flu vaccine. They use last year’s virus as the predictor of next year’s (and they usually get it wrong btw). 2008 was a unique year...they shouldn’t be weighting it nearly as heavily as they are.