Normally, your assessment would be correct. However, this storm has a blocking high above it and a negatively tilted trough to the west that are forecast to push it to the Northwest.
And increases in strength will come more from baroclinic factors, negating the colder waters as it moves towards the Jersey Shore.
I think this will be the worst wind event in Philly since the Gale of 1878.
Well, we’ll see what’s in store for Jersey and Philly soon enough.
Minimal damage from storm surge, a lot of rain, uprooted trees and light, mostly aesthetic exterior damage to structures, flooding of lowlying areas from NC to Mass, with very heavy snowfall amounts of up to two feet along the Appalachians, from northeastern Tennessee and northwestern North Carolina on up through the Virginias into Pennsylvania, with a possible lake effect kicking in over parts of the Ohio Valley, western PA and Upstate New York.
That’s my forecast for the next several days as a result of this storm.
What’s yours?
You are right.