[Heff]

I think its clear that MItt is leading Nationally.... I believe Mitt will win the populous vote, but the end-game is winning state by state. Am I wrong here?

[Iowegian]

Is Romney going to win populous states like California, New York and Illinois? I think your theory is bogus.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Depends.

If the Governor wins by more than 2 points in the popular vote, OH, WI and IA will all go for him

However, there is a case to be made where the Gov could win a small popular vote victory (let us say 1%) and potentially lose the EV

NHWingut and Ravi have done some analysis on it. Check out their posts on why a popular vote victory over 1 or 2% will guarantee an EV victory

[NYRepublican72]

I think its clear that MItt is leading Nationally.... I believe Mitt will win the populous vote, but the end-game is winning state by state. Am I wrong here?

If it's a one-point Romney edge at the end of the day, that could happen. But if it ends up Romney +3 or +4, it would be very difficult for one of the Romney combo of swing states such as Ohio or Wisconsin + New Hampshire NOT fall. Ohio has predicted the winner in every election since 1960 and has been within 3 points of the national average -- usually boosting the vote total of the winner.