Posted on 10/25/2012 6:36:14 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate,...
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No - but O’s support is very soft there. He won’t pull in the big numbers like Gore and Kerry did.
CA has gotten so bad O has bought more commercial air time in a Deep Blue State he could take in his sleep.
I’m a California native, so I will believe it when I see it.
If, as the polls seem to lean now, Virginia and Colorado fall (257EV) then not winning Ohio leaves only one really solid-ish chance in my mind, Win Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Time to focus on the state polls. Blood is in the water but the American people need to make sure their own state’s margin is high enough to be fraud resistant.
Remember Al Franken! Best way to prevent that is make sure its not even close. They can and will “find” a few 1000 votes. Much harder when it’s in the 10s or 100s of thousands. Best way to do this is drag neighbors and friends to the polls with you to make sure they vote.
Better than yesterday . O loses a point.
Yesterday had it 50/R to 48/O with zer0 -9.
Today is better, no?
It sounds like the first day after debate assessment was a victory for Obama. The 2nd day, once all the lies came out, was less favorable. Here’s hoping the 3rd day will be a turn in Romney’s direction due to the blow-up over the Benghazi emails.
Rush says that Gallup and others ran 7+ Romney numbers just so the Obama campaign could claim a surge after the final debate. Those frezied Romney supporters on FR who were high-fiving over Gallup and bad-mouthing Rasmussen were not listening to Rush Limbaugh’s experience with these people. He was dead on. It was a set-up. That means that Gallup and the mainstream pollsters still have a bit of time to churn out numbers showing the race dead even or +Obama. They WILL do it. And some could care less if they are right or wrong come election day. The liberals know they can do real polling if they really want to, so they’ll hire them anyway.
I keep saying to pay attention to tried and steady Rasmussen. Most significant with Rasmussen is Romney reaching the 50% level and staying there steadily. ANY percentage of the undecided vote that goes Romney’s way would theoretically insure a Romney victory.
No, he gained a point. Went from 50-46 to 50-47
However the internals deteriorated for the President
Debate bounce. And I blame Romney for being lax and letting Obama get away with too much.
Josh Jordan over at NRO has a good blog post about the Ohio numbers - he thinks the early voting is skewing the “likely voter” screen, because the internals tell a different story than the top line number. He is of the opinion that Romney could comfortably win Ohio without the polls ever showing him with a significant (or any) lead.
There was no debate bounce. You need to see the internals. Today’s crosstabs improved for Romney (w Indies, Gender, RT/WT, etc).
See my post above. And the sample went from D+3 to D+4 according to @numbersmuncher.
Here is the commentary from Scott. He posted late today.
No spoilers in his commentary today (unlike yesterday, when he told us that the President had a good polling day on Tuesday)
I agree - don’t pay attention to the top number.
The internals are so bad for Obama I’ll be surprised if its a squeaker on Election Day.
This could well turn out to be 1980. People were surprised at the magnitude of the first Reagan win because the polls showed it to be a dead heat right up to Election Day.
I don’t think it will be close at all.
Ah okay. I thought O was at 48 yesterday.
At least Romney is still at 50%! And not 49% like we thought would happen today.
I agree that the national polls give general information. And if Romney trends upward in these polls, that is certainly newsworthy and encouraging. However, it’s all about the state polls at this point. Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Florida, PA, Virginia, NC, Nevada, Wisconsin, NH and Michigan. This is where the race is.
Romney has advantage in these states: Colorado, Florida, Virginia, NC
Obama has advantage is these states: Ohio, Iowa, PA, Nevada, Wisc, Mich
Toss up: NH
So, GOTV is what it comes down to now. The campaign that gets their voters to the polls in these close states—wins. Hands down. So, volunteer, drive people to the polls, take friends and neighbors with you. It matters.
There wasn’t though. You spread misery in every thread. Stop. Read the thread. The internals and Rasmussen’s comments tell you what you need to know about this poll. No debate bounce.
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