Maybe we need to win independents by 11%.
40 % dem
40% GOP
20 % Ind
=100%
40% GOP + 9% is only 49%, 40% GOP + 11% Ind = 51% and the WIN!
Watch the terminology, grasshopper!
If:
40% of electorate votes R and
40% of the electorate votes D then
We need to win 10.000001% to win the popular vote (electoral college is another matter!)
The polls are not saying “Romney attracts votes of 9% of independents” (i.e. Romney 9% of Independents, Obama 91%)
The pills DO say “Romney 9% AHEAD of Obama among independents” (i.e Romney 54.5% of independents, Obama 44.5%)