[Brookhaven]

R-50
O-46
U-4

Undecideds always split for the challenger, and even more so when the incumbent is under 50%. That 4% undecided is likely to split 3 to 1 for Romney, making the final total:

R-53
O-47

6%—not quite 8, but a lot more than 4.

[Lady Heron]

Does not account for 3rd party vote. In the past have they not gotten at least 1 or 2 points???