In California, Obama’s approval is only 50.1 percent, according to Gallup — so I don’t see how this state contributes so mightily to a victory in the popular vote.
I think the final margin of victory depends on the early states. If it looks like Romney is taking the early swing states, the undecideds will all go with the likely winner and the win margin will increase.
With an approval rating that low, that spells more trouble for 0. I have suspected for some time that 0 internals do not look very exciting in CA, and approvals of barely 50% in a dark blue state spells big trouble. Lowered d enthusiasm means lower d turnout. The GOP base should be emboldened and enthusiastic. Although the tracking polls won’t show it, the CA vote could be much closer than people predict....and it is possible that the boatload of CA EVs could go to Romney.
Call me crazy - but I’m saying it’s possible. Despite the color on all of the EV maps, CA is not as solid for the Big 0 as everybody thinks.