This poll has more R’s than D’s, the first that I have seen.
I will admit, THIS ONE does concern me here.
It does oversample women, which may counter that, but I am not going to lie....Ohio is my one worry state.
Ohio and Michigan benefitted the most from the auto bailout and Obama’s advertising apparently has pressed that hard. That unique event could stop Ohio from mirroring the nation so closely this time.
I think if the election is close, Romney loses Ohio. If he wins every other 2004 Bush state except New Mexico, it’s a 269-269 tie (this includes Nevada and Iowa for Romney). If Romney can flip New Hampshire or the 1 Maine EV over to his side, then he can break the tie.