[InterceptPoint]

Explain the following to me. It makes no sense:

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 45%

Ohio Romney 48% Obama 48%

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Where I've highlighted the states where Obama is believed to be either ahead or the race is tied.

So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.

[lasereye]

So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.

It would have to be more than 10% since the other states include most of the large ones. Something literally doesn't add up.

[NittanyLion]

I posted the same thing a couple days ago. There's no way to reconcile Rasmussen's individual state polls with his aggregate swing state tracking poll. I created a spreadsheet with 2008 voting totals and adjusted the allocation of votes to reflect his state tracking polls, and when you sum all those you get a dead heat across the 11 states. Theoretically it could be due to higher turnout in Romney-leaing states / lower turnout in Obama leaning states, but the turnout would have to change dramatically in order to account for the difference.

I can only assume he's employing a different turnout model for his aggregate swing state tracking poll than for his state polls.

[wolfman23601]

72 non highlighted EVs vs 76 highlighted EVs (and I question if NH should be highlighted given many pollsters still show zero with a sizable lead there).

Also consider Colorado, Florida and Virginia are very close, within the MOE.

So yes, Romney must be up in NC by 35

[paudio]

Let’s see. The population of CO (5m) + FL (19m) + VA (8m) + NC (10m) + NH (1m) = 42m

While IA (3m) + MI (9m)+ NV (3m) + OH (12m) + PA (12m) + WI (5m) = 44m

The numbers are relatively comparable (42m v. 44m), so Rass might have used different turnout assumptions for each state.

[KC_Conspirator]

Non of that makes sense. Not one bit.

[GonzoGOP]

So where in the heck it our 5% advantage? Is Romney up by 10% in the non-highlighted states? It doesn't add up.

Not quite ten points but in North Carolina (+6), Virginia (+3), Colorado (+4) and Florida (+5). However it is just about that bad for Obama. What skews the battleground poll is that the poll is weighted by the population of the states involved. Romney has big leads in big states. Because of their relative populations a five point lead in Florida is the same as a 20 point lead in Iowa. Obama has small leads in small states, Romney has big leads in big states.

Also Rasmussen has Obama is listed as a dead even tie in Iowa and Ohio The only high pop state Obama has a lead in is PA (-4)

[Lady Heron]

Good catch.