Agreed. This is one more in a long series of polls in which Obama cannot get above 47%. Interestingly, Karl Rove had the same number for Obama on his chalkboard in his interview on Greta after the debate. Obama has hit his ceiling.
So to put in terms of numbers what we all had been talking about in words, Obama's problem and his unavoidable failsafe in this debate was to do something which would elevate him above 47%. He could have been very passive and hope that Romney committed a gaffe but Romney is not the gaffe type. Obama knew this was the bottom of the ninth so he took is only option, he swung for the fences and tried to provoke Romney into a gaffe or at least disparage him enough so that the numbers would change.
But the problem for Obama is that disparaging Romney hardly elevates Obama's numbers. Obama's numbers are stuck at 47% because the remaining 48% or 49%, at least, have made up their minds and they are unalterably opposed to giving Obama four more years.
Consider Obama's dilemma going into the debate. His record is terrible and therefore he cannot run on his record. He made a decision long ago to run a campaign of diversion hoping to destroy Romney as a viable candidate so that Obama could stop him at one of his firewalls. Romney dismantled this strategy in his first debate. This third debate is nothing but a reprise of the second debate which in its turn was an attempt to accomplish in the debate forum what Obama had squandered hundreds of millions of dollars to accomplish with television advertising. In other words, Obama is still trying to gain by tearing down Romney.
But Obama's problem is not that Romney is held in high esteem and is vulnerable to personal attack, Obama's problem is that the electorate has made a judgment about Obama and more than half the people have decided against him. Attacking Romney does not rehabilitate Obama. Attacking Romney does not even bring Romney down to the point where the electorate says a plague on both your houses and so we better stay with the devil we know. That only works if Romney walks into the trap.
So when we say that Romney looked "presidential" in a debate we mean simply that Obama has not solved his dilemma. His problem is mathematical and these numbers will not change absent a major gaffe, deus ex machina, or an October surprise . The first did not happen, the second will not happen, and the third may yet play out-but I do not think so.
