I listened to a Gallup talking head on some Fox show yesterday, and he said they don’t use party ID weighting at all at Gallup. He said they considered it to be an attitude (hope I’m using the right word), and that it fluctuates with the candidate the person is supporting.
As I understand the logic from those who use party ID weighting, they believe that party affiliation is a long term position held by a person that does not fluctuate in terms of their answering which party they ID themselves with. Those that use party id, like Rasmussen, then adjust it based on other elements of a secret sauce formula that they apply.
The guy from Gallup made a compelling case. I think Rasmussen’s numbers have been closest for a number of election cycles now, so I wouldn’t discount his secret sauce just yet.
They both have Romney up, but Gallup by about 6 and Ras by about 2.
Based on past polling tracking history, tonight is not going to change the momentum of the race - once you give away your lead, its impossible to get it back.
And with Obama stuck at 45% - he has a lot of people to persuade him to give him another chance. Not likely since he’s a known quantity.
This election is all about the economy, stupid.
The problem with some of these +9% Democrat polls may not be from their failure to weight by party, but their sampling techniques. The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.