I think the collective fear in here about this being a Gallup ‘setup’ is wrong. Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.
If other pollsters were using models closer to 2004 rather than 2008 the RCP average would be 6+ in favor of Romney (not counting the eventual allocation of un decideds).
Geeeze. Boogiemen enter their collective fantasizing minds. Booooo!
Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.
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That is exactly what he is doing. He is factoring in the GOP enthusiasm advantage. And Raz is just doing it the old fashioned way, using historical figures and doing some averaging. Good luck with that. I think Gallup is on to something.
I’m betting it’s Gallup at R+2 to Rasmussen’s D+3.
“I think the collective fear in here about this being a Gallup setup is wrong. Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.”
Close ... but I ink more accurate to say it this way:
Gallup doesnt even USE a turnout model! (Correct me if I am wrong, but they dont do the ‘secret sauce’ other pollster do. They just take a straight sample and make sure it is balanced enough up front and go with it.) What that means is that Gallup can ‘bounce around’ more and can be an outlier, but it is otherwise cant get you fooled by ‘turnout models’ that are wrong.
So gallup is probably showing us the REAL 2012 turnout model is a big win for Romney. It’s an Inconvenient Truth so the liberals will hide behind the bogus polls and their bogus turnout models ... until the election.
JMHO.