As other polls show tight race, Gallup stands apart

Reuters ^ | Oct. 19, 2012 | Andy Sullivan

[Free ThinkerNY]

(Reuters) - The election between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks like it will be a knuckle-biter - unless you go by one of the United States' most respected public-opinion polls.

As most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable six percentage points if the election were held today.

Questions about the gap between Gallup's findings and those of other pollsters is the latest fuss this election season over polling methodology as partisan passions come to a boil in the heated final weeks before the November 6 presidential contest.

With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads.

[Repeal 16-17]

Gallup either:

1 - is royally screwing up;

2 - setting up Romney; or

3 - knows something the other pollsters don't know.

[tatown]

Or

4. Is being honest about where they think the race is right now.

[Red Steel]

Ras in the last two weeks of a presidential election doubles his sample sizes in key states from 500 to 1,000, and I believe doubles down to determine who are really the likely voters. ...It’s money time.

[jjsheridan5]

TWO things could ruin the outcome:overconfident Romney supporters not casting their ballots or obanma supporters castings multiple and fraudulent ballots.

Actually, there is a third. Underconfident, or cynical, Romney supporters, who refuse to believe or accept that things can actually go our way.

I do not understand this notion that it is bad to be confident, or bad to be generally optimistic, about one's chances. People vote for winners, not losers. Confident competitors almost always do better than cynical ones. This idea that we have to stick our heads in the stand, and keep repeating, "this is close, but we are losing", is counterproductive, and also without any logical or empirical basis.

I am not suggesting that one pretend that things are better than they are -- rather, accept that the trend is on our side, the polls showing an even race are based on an unlikely assumption about voter turnout, and many of the "safe" blue states have large numbers of conservative voters, and if the left is heavily discourages (which it appears to be), then the whole "it's all about Ohio" meme becomes silly.

[ScottfromNJ]

“Gallup stands apart”

Not exactly. The recent PPP/KOS and UPI polls show Romney with a significant lead more in line with Gallup. Also the state polls are moving Romney’s way. Not sure why it keeps being suggested that Gallup is the only poll showing Romney with a substantial lead.

[crosslink]

What is so helpful is Ohio likes to vote for the ultimate person they think will be the winner. This poll and many of the others help the weak to make their choice.

[goldstategop]

White men are the miners’ canary in this election.

[Red Steel]

Yes, that’s the last ingredient for R/R that their voters get to the polls and win this. R/R have more of them than BO.

[Sivad]

Axlegrease needs to take Gallup to the woodshed again or
Barrybuttnugget could wake-up a community organizer again
one chilly November morning.

[RitaOK]

It is interesting that Gallup two or three weeks ago changed their method to include more Republicans. Closer to Rasmussen methodology now, there is a stunning difference between them on Romney’s lead.

I’ll stick with Ras and remain very tense about the close race, a nail biter
and then add the fraudulent voting.

[fortheDeclaration]

Some people are always looking for the dark cloud instead of the silver lining.

[garbanzo]

Things to keep in mind...people have had four years to decide whether or not to vote for Obama...if he isn’t polling well above 50% now it’s unlikely he’ll pull that in the final weeks unless Romney makes some big error or something big comes out.

[hoosierham]

OK,I had forgotten about the underconfident,the “what’s the use,we never win anyway” people.

Which is ironic considering how the adults in my family were always careful to smack down enthusiasm with phrases like “someone’s getting too big for their britches” .

Some groups enshrine the eldest non-senile family member with near dictatorial power over the whole family.Not a good training ground for independent,confident persons.