Posted on 10/19/2012 7:37:57 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
(Reuters) - The election between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks like it will be a knuckle-biter - unless you go by one of the United States' most respected public-opinion polls.
As most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable six percentage points if the election were held today.
Questions about the gap between Gallup's findings and those of other pollsters is the latest fuss this election season over polling methodology as partisan passions come to a boil in the heated final weeks before the November 6 presidential contest.
With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Isn’t it interesting that the media only talks about outlier polls if it hurts their Messiah?
Any poll that is positive for Obama is accepted as pure gospel, no matter how ludicrous the internals are.
aMEN!
Exactly. Who IS this jumped up newcomer to opinion polling called Gallup, anyway?
Gallup Likely voters Oct 14-18 2008 Obama 51% McCain 44%!!!!
dunno...but obviously a bunch of racists ;-)
No actually Gallup is merely the farthest out there. All of them show the same basic trend EXCEPT for the Junk Media polls.
So the seriously polling shows the same thing Gallup does just to a lesser extent.
This is the latest wishful thinking from the Left. After feverishly pimping polls all Sept. They now want to ignore the same polls to cling to polls that tell them what they want to hear.
State polling lags behind national polling because they are not done as frequently as national polls. Over the next 10 days as the state by state polls fall into line with the national polls, what will be the next Leftist rationalization to explain away why they are losing?
gallup has galloped into the lead in the race toward oneness w/the unskewed #’s.
Interesting though, that all the way back to FDR, they have always picked the winner except for Truman-Dewey and Carter-Ford.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx
Romney said in that private meeting that became public, that 47% would have a hard time voting for him since they were on welfare and all those benefits pay more than working - money, medicaid, cell phones, etc.
LoL light loafer Andy. Most polls are over polling Dumb-Ds by a county mile, and under polling Independents lower than the Marianas trench.
Romney is going to win this easily. You got 18 days to deal with it - your impending loss.
Rasmussen indicated that his polls would show a change in Romney’s favor tomorrow when a day that wasn’t good for him is eliminated for the 7 day rolling poll. We’ll see.
These stories about Gallup are being pushed by the Obama campaign.
Now that Gallup is using Likely Voters rather than just registered voters the left has their panties in a twist. Golly gee it must suck to be them
Gallup may be an outlier but it isn’t oversampling Ds to make the race look close.
I guess we’ll find out next month who is right but the shift that we’ve seen since the first debate this month has yet to be fully be reflected in state by state polls.
Every one else is assuming this election will be like 2008. It won’t be and every election is unique - as this one will be.
TWO things could ruin the outcome:overconfident Romney supporters not casting their ballots or obanma supporters castings multiple and fraudulent ballots.
Well,the second part of your reply will be sure to happen anyway
And from Eisenhower’s re-election in 1956 (excluding Bush in 2004), the incumbent has also received about 2% less in the actual vote than their final poll...so count on Zero to slightly underperform his final poll number...
Gallup is using something close to an even D-R split, Ras is using a +3-4%D model, the rest are still in 2008 mode.
Watching the left as reality dawns on them over the next couple of weeks will be fun,
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