I think Romney is probably up by 7+ and if the Democrats are really demoralized, he could take the state by 10+. He’s not like Bush - he’s a liberal Republican who fits naturally in with the NE.
He won’t win his home state of MA or carry NY but that’s due mainly to the fact the demographics make it impossible for a GOP presidential candidate to win there. Reagan was the exception to that rule.
No Republican will ever take PA in a squeaker. Philly will always produce enough votes to take the Dem over the top if it's anywhere near close. If it looks like Romney will win PA beyond the ability of Philly to cheat, then the cheaters will stay home and save their money, and Romney will carry the state by a large margin.
The clue as to which will happen will come from the Philly precincts. If they hold off their numbers until everybody else has reported in, they will cheat. If they report Philly early, that means they decided not to try.