Yes, I am serious.
ONLY the votes of the Electoral College matter. Even if Romney got 99% (unlikely, of course) of the vote in the states that are currently solid or leaning toward him, and the majority of votes overall, it wouldn’t increase his total in the Electoral College by one bit and Obama could still win.
Right now the only votes that count are ones in the “swing” states. Romney must win enough of them get their Electoral College votes and put himself over the top. Some of them are falling into line (NC, VA, etc.) but Ohio seems to the keystone to this group of votes, and, right now, Obama seems to be tied or leading there.
State polls lag by a week or more.
Again, if Romney is up 5 or more nationally, he will win 300+ electoral votes.
On a positive note, the NPV (National Popular Vote) types who want CA, NY and IL to elect our presidents when Dems have the polling advantage have gone into deep seclusion since their battlefield conversion to the Book of Common Electoral College Prayer.