The MSNBC undecided focus group, who almost all voted for Obama in 2008, thought that Obama won on points, but decided that they are voting for Romney after listening to the debate.
In other words, Obama technically won the debate, but the voters didn’t believe his lies. They said that Romney sounded like he had a plan, but Obama didn’t. It was pretty much the same thing that the Luntz group said.
The debate live audience and these various focus groups make it seem that 80%+ of “undecideds” were 2008 Obama voters. If that is the case for the undecideds in the whole electorate, Obama is toast.
For someone to vote Obama in 2008 but be undecided now likely means they know Obama was a mistake, but are holding out for something to justify their error. Every time Obama fails to provide a reason to believe, part of this group will decide to stay home or vote for Romney.