I think Romney has ALWAYS been ahead. I think the polls were bi-assed, and the Bradley effect will be on a massive scale (Bradley effect didn’t occur in 2008 because whites wanted to assuage their guilt, and B. Hussein appeared to be a Bill Clinton without the Interns). In 2012, there’s going to be such a massive, cathartic sweeping out of Democrats the MSNBC commentators will pour gasoline on themselves and self-immolate.
I don’t think Romney was always ahead so much as Obama was always behind. When an incumbent polls conisistanly below 50% it means most people don’t want to reelect him. They just hadn’t settled on Mitt as an acceptable alternative. Now most have, and more will.