Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 13, 2012 (Senate Slipping Away)

Rasmussen Reports Data ^ | 10/13/12 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

This time, we'll start in the Senate.

The Republican GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint?

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 8.4% for Republicans taking over.

Since the last report, we had the two party conventions and the first round of candidate debates. And the Akin incident in Missouri. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican leadership response to Todd Akin's rape comment led to the drop in support for all the GOP senator candidates. McConnell and DeMint better be very visible in the remaining weeks building back the GOP takeover of the Senate.

It's also time for Mitt Romney to roll out his coattails and start rallying for the Senate candidates that he needs to build a united Congress to work with. Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.

See the probability chart at the following link to see how bad it has gotten. Link to Senate Probability Chart

Here is a run-down of what happened.

In Connecticut, a late August poll had Republican Linda McMahon leading Democrat Chris Murphy by +3% or 49%-46%. Now, Murphy is leading by 51%-46%, an 8-point GOP drop.

In Florida, a mid-August poll showed Republican Mack had already lost his July lead over Democrat Nelson, and was down by 7%. This week's poll shows that gap growing even more, with Nelson leading 52%-41%, an 11% lead. Is Florida a lost opportunity, or can Romeny help pull Mack back in front?

In Maine, the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Olympia Snowe is flipping to Democrats. Snowe last won the seat by 74%-20%. Republican candidate Charlie Summers is trailing Independent candidate Angus King by 45%-33%. The Democrat candidate Cynthia Dill has 14%. The discussion now is which party with King caucus with? He will probably side with Democrats when all is said and done.

In Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren were tied at 48% in a late September poll, matching the 45% tie from a May poll. Now, Warren gained 1% while Brown lost 1%, giving Warren a 49%-47% lead. Can Massachusetts' former Governor Romney push Scott Brown back into the lead in his own state?

In Missouri, Lame Duck Democrat CLaire McCaskill is being handed back her Senate seat by weak, thin-skinned Republican leadership who failed to support fellow Republican Todd Akin, despite being caught in a gotcha interview. Republicans were leading 49%-43% in early Agust when Akin blundered in an interview and leadership fled for the hills. A late-August poll showed McCaskill back in the lead 48%-38%, a 16% swing. A mid-September poll showed some Akin rebound, closing the spread to McCaskill to 49%-43%. An early October poll has each candidate equally gaining 2%, keeping it a -6% spread at 51%-45% for McCaskill. At this point, Romney is keeping his distance although some Senate leadership is quietly supporting Akin.

In Nevada, a late July poll showed Republican Dean Heller leading Democrat Shelley Berkley by 51%-42%. Berkley had gained 2% from a May poll, while Heller remained at 51%. A late September poll had Heller falling 9% while Berkley held constant, closing the race to 42%-41% for Republicans. A new poll this week has Heller widening the gap as both candidates increase, making it 48%-45%, a +3% lead for Heller. Overall, Republicans lost 6% in this race over the summer, barely holding on.

In Ohio, the state had appeared to be moving towards Republicans. Josh Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Sherrod Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up. However, by mid-September the lead evaporated and Brown gained from an 8% swing, making the race 49%-41% for Democrats. Mandel has regained his losses, closing the race to a -1% trail, or 47%-46% for Democrats.

In Virginia, an early August poll showed Republican Allen had picked up 1% from a July poll, while Democrat Kaine remained unchanged over three polls. The race was tied at 46%. Two weeks later, a re-poll in mid-August showed the raced still tied at 45% apiece, a -1% drop for each candidate. A late September poll showed Kaine beginning to pull away with a +2% gain of 47%-45%. Two weeks later, an early October poll showed a Kaine surge of an additional 5%, making it a solid 52%-45% for Democrats. One week later, the current poll shows the Kaine bump disappearing, bringing the race back to 47%-45% for Kaine. Allen remains stuck at 45%. Can Romney pull Allen ahead in the final weeks as he campaigns in Virginia?

In Wisconsin, the polls have been swinging back and forth. Republican Thompson went from 52% in June to 41% in early August and back to 54% in mid-August, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. A late July poll had Baldwin inching ahead again to 49%-46%, and the latest poll has her pulling away at 51%-47%. What is happening in this GOP revolution state? Romney needs to convince Wisconsin voters that he needs Thompson in the Senate in order to carry out his program as President.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Connecticut 2: -8% (R -5%)
• Florida 2: -4% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• Massachusetts 1: -2% (R -2%)
• Missouri 2: +0% (R -6%)
• Montana 2: +2% (R +4%)
• Nevada 1: +2% (R +3%) - moves back into the margin of error
• New Mexico 1: -4% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Ohio 1: +7 (R -1%)
• Rhode Island 2: Never Polled (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: Never Polled (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +5% (R -2%)
• Wisconsin 2: -1% (R -4%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4
25-Aug-12	51	52.59	54	95.05%	5
01-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.53%	4
08-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.46%	4
15-Sep-12	50	51.19	53	73.42%	4
22-Sep-12	48	49.83	51	30.40%	2
29-Sep-12	47	48.79	50	9.26%	1
06-Oct-12	47	48.49	50	4.63%	1
13-Oct-12	47	48.74	50	8.42%	1

Link to Senate Probability Chart

The Race for the White House

Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 253 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 245, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 28% chance of winning today.

In Colorado, the race was tied at 47% in Mid-August. A late-September poll showed Romney holding steady and Obama losing 2%. This week's poll has Romney gaining 2% and Obama gaining 3%, making the race a 49%-48% lead for Romney. Colorado remains a Toss-up.

In Connecticut, polling has finally taken place. A late-August poll has Obama leading Romney by 51%-43%. A poll this week has Romney gaining 2% and Obama holding at 51%. Connecticut is a Strong Obama state.

In Florida, Romney increased on his +2% lead, gaining another +2% in the most recent poll. Romney's 51%-47% lead moves Florida from Leans to Strong for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney lost his lead. He fell from a peak of 47%-44% in September to now running 49%-47% behind Obama. Iowa moves from Leans Romney to Leans Obama, and Iowa's 6 Electoral Votes move from Romney to Obama.

In Michigan, Romney was trailing by -6%. A late September poll had Obama way ahead at 54%-42%, but a poll this week shows Romney gaining and Obama slipping to a 52%-45% lead for Obama. Michigan remains a Strong state for Obama.

In Missouri, Romney was leading by +6% into August. A late August poll showed the state flipping to Obama 47%-46%, likely due to the Akin incident. By September, Romney had regained a 48%-45% lead, and October has Romney sustaining a +3% lead at 49%-46%. Missouri falls from Strong Romney to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Obama losing 3% while Romney remained steady at 47%-45% Obama. A poll this week shows Romney gaining another 2% and bringining Nevada to a 47% tie. Nevada moves to Toss-Up and 6 Electoral Votes are taken away from Obama.

In New Hampshire, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Romney pulling off an 8% swing, pulling into the lead at 48%-45%. Polling this week shows Obama gaining 3%, bringing the state to a 48% tie. New Hampshire moves from a Strong state for Obama to a Toss-up, and Obama loses 4 Electoral Votes.

In North Carolina, Obama has been chipping away at Romney's lead. A late September poll had Romney up by 51%-45%. This week, Romney's lead is 51%-48%. North Carolina moves from Strong to Leans Romney.

In Ohio, a mid-September poll shows Obama breaking the summer tie by 1%, inching to a 47%-46% lead. Two polls in October show the race remaining at -1% gap, settling into a 48%-47% Obama lead. Ohio remains a Toss-up.

In Pennsylvania, a 4% Obama lead over the summer became a 12% blowout in the late September poll. A poll this week brings the race back to a +5% lead for Obama at 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.

In Virginia, Obama's success was short-lived. By late August, Virginia was tied again at 47%, costing Obama 13 Electoral College votes. A mid-September poll showed Obama gaining 2% to Romney's 1%, netting a 49%-48% lead for Obama. An early October poll had Romney gaining 1% and Obama losing 1%, and this week's poll has Obama losing another 1%, making the state now Romney's at 49%-47%. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and gives him 13 Electoral Votes.

In Wisconsin, the ground shifted again under Romney. A late-September poll flips the state back to an Obama lead with 49%-46%, and giving him Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes. This week's poll has Romney gaining 1%, closing the race to 51%-49% for Obama. Wisconsin Leans Obama.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Colorado: -1% (R +1%)
• Connecticut: +2% (R -6%) - moves into the margin of error
• Florida: +2% (R +4%)
• Georgia: Never Polled (R +5.2%) - 2008 result
• Iowa: -4% (R -2%)
• Michigan: +5% (R -7%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Missouri: +0% (R +3%)
• Montana: +8% (R +17%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Nevada: +2% (R +0%)
• New Hampshire: -3% (R +0%)
• North Carolina: -1% (R +3%)
• Ohio: +0% (R -1%)
• Pennsylvania: +7% (R -5%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Virginia: +1% (R +2%)
• Wisconsin: +1% (R -2%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 260								Romney - 238
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	6	Iowa	9	Colorado	10	Missouri	29	Florida	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	16	Michigan	10	Wisconsin	4	New Hampshire	15	North Carolina	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			18	Ohio	13	Virginia			11	Arizona
4	Hawaii					6	Nevada					6	Arkansas
20	Illinois											4	Idaho
4	Maine											11	Indiana
10	Maryland											6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts											8	Kentucky
10	Minnesota											8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey											6	Mississippi
5	New Mexico											3	Montana
29	New York											5	Nebraska
7	Oregon											3	North Dakota
4	Rhode Island											7	Oklahoma
3	Vermont											9	South Carolina
12	Washington											3	South Dakota
												11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
194		43		16		37		38		45		162

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%
25-Aug-12	223	252.39	281	21.52%
01-Sep-12	223	252.39	281	22.08%
08-Sep-12	224	252.45	281	21.66%
15-Sep-12	221	249.88	278	17.54%
22-Sep-12	225	252.98	278	20.34%
29-Sep-12	225	252.04	277	19.04%
06-Oct-12	225	253.31	279	21.00%
13-Oct-12	233	258.74	283	27.69%

Link to Probability Chart

[Political Junkie Too]

Romney really has to expand his campaign to include rallying with state candidates. He needs to show his coattails and demonstrate that he's a team builder.

As Romney campaigns in swing states, it's time for him to support the Senate slate with a message of building a team for the future. Romney has to convince voters that it's not enough to replace Obama, but that Romney needs a team in Congress, too, to work with him on putting America back on the right track.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping to the latest Rasmussen poll analysis. It's not pretty in the race for the Senate.

-PJ

[Artcore]

Sorry, but I’m ot wringing my hands yet. Good grief, I’m getting F-ing burned out on these polls.

[Artcore]

“Sorry, but I’m ot wringing my hands yet. Good grief, I’m getting F-ing burned out on these polls.”
___________________________________________

ot = not

[FlingWingFlyer]

I don’t know what the hell Jeff Flake is thinking but he might want to get out of the McCain “I got it in the bag” mode. Republicans are going to lose Kyl’s seat. That lying Obama turd Carmona is flooding the airwaves with with some pretty brutal ads. Yo Jeff! Time to wake up pal!

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll Ping.

[Political Junkie Too]

Flake is leading in Arizona by 47%-41%, but you're right that he had a comfortable 47%-31% lead through September. He let Carmona build up an additional 10% support, while he got nothing new.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

It's the Senate that you should be concerned about.

While everyone is focusing on Obama and Romney, the Senate is slipping away under the radar.

The MSM isn't talking about it because they don't want to bring attention to it.

The Republicans went from a 90% certain takeover in August to less than 10% probability now. If the elections were held today, Republicans would be lucky to pick up two more seats.

-PJ

[FlingWingFlyer]

What is really aggravating is that Carmona is passing himself off as something he isn’t. A big super HERO who goes around all day just saving people’s lives.

[Gene Eric]

No doubt we’d be looking better if it were a midterm.

We need to get out the vote regardless of how Blue a given State may be.

[rwfromkansas]

This is due to Dems getting more engaged. As long as we turn out enough over Dems, it will be fine.

And frankly, Romney making appeals could backfire by firing up the Dems as well.

It’s not an easy solution...

[rwfromkansas]

That said, I have thought for awhile we wouldn’t get the Senate, which sucks because we will get SCOTUS retirements for sure in the next four years.

[Political Junkie Too]

But we should get the Senate. There is no excuse for not picking up 4 more seats.

I'm afraid that McConnell and Co. took their eye off the ball during the August recess and September conventions.

Republicans have never been good at creating a national coalition around a common theme the way that Democrats have done.

Now is the time that we need it, though, and our Senate leadership is old and tired.

-PJ

[fortheDeclaration]

More doom and gloom brought on the polls!

The Democrats are going to get killed this election!

[hinckley buzzard]

Isn't there a Republican Senate Campaign Committee? I have yet to see or hear a word from them. Maybe McConnell is complacent and happy to be in the minority. Like old Bob Michel from the bad old days, he can blame everything on Harry Reid and the rat majority, then go play golf with John Boehner.

[Political Junkie Too]

Rasmussen has been held up as the most accurate polling, which is why I'm using only his results. I've been tracking it all season, every season. The trend is clear.

-PJ

[Yashcheritsiy]

Before we hyperventilate, we need to know whose polls these are that are showing these sudden drops in GOP support.

Are they MSM polls? If so, toss them in the toilet and get on with your life.

[Political Junkie Too]

Huh? The word "Rasmussen" is all over the report.

This is an analysis of the entire 2012 election Rasmussen polling.

-PJ

[Truthsearcher]

I actually think this is a clear evidence of a trend toward Romney. Most independents wants to be thought of as being “balanced” and “open minded”, so they have a tendency to at least claim to be splitting their vote.

[Political Junkie Too]

I think so too, but I'm going to have to look at the crosstabs to see where it is. I only recently started doing that.

-PJ