Georgian Government Warns Of Russian Build Up As Election Nears

The Cable ^ | 12 Oct 2012 | Josh Rogin

[edpc]

As Georgians head to the polls Monday, analysts are warning that rising tensions could boil over just as the Russian military is conducting exercises near the de facto border line, a situation the Georgia government is worried Moscow could exploit.

"We hope it will be made clear to Russia that a military invasion into Georgia with the goal of destroying Georgia's sovereignty, which is still the goal of the Kremlin, will have a huge at minimum political price for Russia in its relationship with Western powers," Georgia's National Security Advisor Giga Bokeria told The Cable in a phone interview from Tbilisi.

[edpc]

The European Union's monitoring mission, which patrols the administrative boundary between Georgia and the Russian-occupied regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia, noted in its most recent report that while the observers saw no movement of military equipment on the Georgian side that could be perceived as instigating an attack, the Russian forces on the other side of the boundary line are increasing.

United National Movement party is facing its greatest challenge to date from the Georgian Dream Movement, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia but is now spending it to huge effect in the Georgian political arena.

Ivanishvili's party and the ruling party led by President Mikheil Saakashvili have been engaged in a bitter fight over the future of Georgia.

Yeah EU monitors....nothing to see here, eh?

[edpc]

For those expecting an “October Surprise,” take your pick. There’s plenty to choose from this year.

[Viennacon]

I thought Georgia has already had their election, and Putin’s guy won?

[Truth29]

Everything is connected to everything else. NATO is making noises about Syria and Turkey diverted a Russia to Syria flight. Could Russia now decide to give the EU, which underpins much of NATO, a headache?

[Venturer]

huge at minimum political price for Russia in its relationship with Western powers,”

They don’t know Obama, it wouldn’t bother him a bit.

[Tailgunner Joe]

Don't Wait for a Ivanishvili Thaw With Russia Although - October 10, 2012 - Ivanishvili's coalition won a comfortable 16-seat majority in parliament, the political situation in Georgia in the coming months is likely to be anything but calm. First, Georgian Dream is a motley coalition of six different political parties whose solidarity could easily fall apart in the near future. Second, Saakashvili will formally retain his presidential post for a year, after which Georgia will switch from a presidential to a parliamentary republic in accordance with amendments to the country's constitution that were adopted in 2010 and will go into force in October 2013. But it is unlikely that Saakashvili will passively wait out the next year as a lame duck without attempting to influence affairs in his own favor. One option is to call for early parliamentary elections. Saakashvili understands that public opinion can be easily manipulated in Georgia and could quickly swing back toward his camp.