“This from a poll sampling 39% Dim, 31% GOP, 30% Ind? Impressive.”
I can’t believe Romney is leading by that much with such a lopsided Dim sample. I think this is a bit of an outlier. But I do think the 49-44 lead in this poll is pretty close to the real number as the election stands today based on who will actually turn out. And that would leave about 7% 3rd party or undecided. Expect Romney to get at least half that and he ends up about 52.5%.
Believe it, Obama had flat out lost close to 10% of his base before the debates, and was down with indies, so an oversample by 8 points, post debate easily would be a 44% floor.
Reality is, Obama has never had any chance of getting over 42-43% of the popular vote in Novemeber, AT BEST. And he very likely could beat Hoover for getting even less of the popular vote than he did in 1932!
Yes, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Obama will not see 40% of the popular vote on election day.
Obama had to run a FLAWLESS campaign to hit the 42-43% mark, and his campaign was a joke before the debate, the debate just revealed how much of house of cards it was. His actions since have been laughable... flailing and idiotic.
The more he falls, the more frustrated he’ll get, the more frustrated he gets, the more bitter and angry he’ll act.. the more bitter and angry he acts, the farther he’ll fall.
Obama is in a death spiral. Obviously Politics ebb and flow and Obama will get a perk up with the town hall debate, because he won’t lose it as badly as he did the last one, and the press will play it up as he’s back.. and he ruled even if he just does okay.
We’ll see how the next few weeks go, but I said it from the begining, and I say it now... BEST obama can hope for is 42-43% of the popular vote, and its a very real possibility he won’t even see 40%.