“Remember, many of the polls had the recall tied or Walker losing and he ended up win by over 7%... “
They did until about a week or so before the vote. Then the polls came closer to reality and the media was basically conceding that Walker was going to win.
I suspect the same thing will happen here in the polls as we get real close to the election - and in fact it is slowly starting to. The difference is we will not see the MSM admitting it is over for Obama until all the votes are counted
I believe many in the administration and the media have been thinking that Obama is going to lose for quite a while (president's just don't get reelected with an economy is this bad). Then some of them started hoping after the conventions that...maybe...Obama was going to be able to fool enough voters to pull it off. The debate firmly put that notion to bed. Now their only goal from now until election day is make Obama appear like he's still got a chance, they have to. If the base feels that Obama's loss is forgone conclusion, they will sit home and the democrats will lose across the board. The only goal now is to perhaps salvage democrat senate control. That's why you see polls with crazy +8/+10 democrat over-samples, they have to make the race look like it's in the margin of error.