“I’m thinking we’re looking good in OH, NV and NH”
Those are going to be some of the toughest swing states.
Of the battleground states, the only one that I think should be moved off the list (moved to leans Romney) is NC. Agreed?
With regard to OH, Rasmussen’s most recent poll shows Romney down 1, 50 to 49, which supports your argument. Also, Romney and the RNC put in a very big buy for ads for this state for this week, relative to the other battleground states, which also supports your argument.
Supporting my argument that Romney is +2 in Ohio is the average of eighteen polls conducted over the past thirty days, re-weighted for a even Republican-Democrat partisan split on election day. My number, +2, hasn’t changed for six weeks.
My reasoning for NH and NV is similar, but based on a +4 GOP advantage in NH, but with fewer polls.
Now, with the exact same reasoning, I have come up with dead heats for VA (+1 Democrat advantage in turnout) and FL (net zero partisan advantage in turnout). This is why I think FL and VA will be tougher for us.
But, I agree with you that OH, NH and NV will be very tough.