[nwrep]

It is statistically a dead heat if you look at just one poll. But the aggregate indicates 0 is ahead outside the margin of error, so he will win if the election were held today. I am certain of that....

Having said that, the significance of the very low poll participation rate (9%) should not be forgotten. If there is indeed a systematic skewing of the demographic sample due to the low participation (R&R supporters like me consistently refusing to answer polls) then the actual results may be very different, but not because the polls were inaccurate. The polls only predict what those willing to be polled will indicate.

[nhwingut]

Huh? He’s up by 1.5 points based on the last 6 polls. The MOE is 3ish. He’s not outside the MOE, not by a long shot.

Furthermore, these are based on a avg of D+5 samples. The turnout will not be D+5. So factor that into it and the race is certainly not in Obama’s favor, and most likely in favor of Romney by a point or two.

And finally, the bulk of the 4-6% undecideds are almost assured to go for Romney at probably a 2-1 pace. They are not undecided about Obama after 4 years, while many are scared of the race card beatdown, hence it is easier to say, “not sure, undecided” and then go in the booth and punch the Romney oval.

[catfish1957]

You also have to wonder how many Obama run polls are finding out who to go after when the election is over. The Brown shirts cometh.

The huge increase of IRS agents dedicated for Obamacare is a ruse. Just watch.