47 + 47 = 94%. What are the other 6% doing anyway?
Still undecided?
Dick Morris says that in his observation...
But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent.
In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.
I’m not sure if Dick Morris’ analysis stands up to scrutiny.
I’d really like to read the opinion of more knowledgeable folks out there on this one.
As questionable as Dick Morris’ track record is, he is pretty much considered a polling expert. You’re seeking some kind of polling messiah. Gallup Jesus perhaps. XD