Posted on 10/01/2012 4:43:43 PM PDT by Justaham
In CNN’s last poll, taken soon after the Democratic convention, O led by six among likely voters. That lead’s now cut in half, to within the margin of error, despite weeks of media doomsaying about Romney’s campaign. In fact, the last four national polls all have the race within two or three points with a bounce opportunity for Romney looming 48 hours from now. I think the first debate will essentially be an audition for him: Obama’s the ultimate known quantity but, for millions of low-information voters, this’ll be the first time they see Romney in action. If he’s as composed and articulate as he was in the GOP primary debates, he’s bound to see some positive movement among undecideds regardless of what Obama does.
Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats:
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Doubt there is a tie. Bet Romney has a double-digit lead, but Obama’s media want to keep that a secret just in case they need the “tie” meme for cheating later.
Why does leaving a state mean Romney is losing, couldn’t it mean that he is winning and there is no point in spending more money there, or that they think they have the state that Paul Ryan is from?
I think they are calling the game too early.
CNN 'holding back' because last chance to show Bobo with faux 'open lead' (still within MoE, but whatever). Ras has built in the slack 'in reverse'. The takeaway is, all the polls are poised for a post-debate breakout Thurs.-Fri. in an attempt to portray Undecideds moving off the dime. Better than 50-50 to be Mittens IF he comes off Presidential while kicking sand in his opponent's face.
Then you'd have a 49-49 or 49-48 going into the weekend that (supposedly) Mitten's shock&awe ad buy unleashes.
You get that scenario, and it'll be hand-to-hand precinct-by-precinct in IA, OH, CO. All ground game from there.
Romney surged in the polls right before his convention and they’re tightening right before the first debate, now why would the MSM do that ?
They don’t want to report any Romney bounce after so they quietly up his numbers right before.
Yep!
Yep. There are a couple of them doing their best to demoralze up. Another one calls himself chopper something.
Unfortunately, FR doesn't have an "ignore" button.
Hank
This bears repeating. Wisconsin has gone all in for rolling back public sector union power. Now we are supposed to believe the same people are going to re-elect Barry the Rat King of Union Kickbacks? That doesn't compute in the least.
And another oddity is that the race is only 2-3 points nationally in favor of Obama, but in the battleground states, Obama is doing just fantastically.
I was struck by the comment of one pollster that only 9% of people contacted agree to participate in a poll, which is way down from 36% a decade ago. Is their a political bias in who responds? Would a small businessman (likely a Republican) take the time to respond as readily as an unemployed deadbeat sitting on the couch all day eating his food-stamp cheetos? (likely a Dem). Their assumption is yes.
Just narc them out and move on.
CNN hedging bets?
Mine too.
Plus Libs know the media is their strongest support and will gleefully lie, cheat and steal for it.
Whereas many, if not most, conservatives knowing that the media is their deadly enemy and would not p... on it if it was on fire. They are FAR more likely to tell them and their pollsters to go f... itself.
I don’t believe a thing these polls say.
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