Rasmussen: SWING STATE: Sunday 09/30: O:48% R:44%: Leaners: O:50% R:45%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/30/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the widest gap in the race since September 6 when Romney held a four-point lead as his bounce from the Republican National Convention peaked. Obama has now been ahead for nine of the last 11 days. For two days late last week, the candidates were tied.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

When “leaners” are factored in, the president leads Romney 50% to 45%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

[nhwingut]

I think your post was realistic and honest. I would add that some of the internals just don’t add up to an Obama bump.

That is what I am hanging my hat on.

Now I truly believe (no matter how biased the samples are) that the trend is with Obama. There is no way you can discount every single poll. Some are more biased than others. But all show a trend towards Obama.

But! There are still five weeks to go (a lifetime in this age of a news cycle being about 4 hours).

Romney does have a lot of money remaining. You will see more ‘contrast’ ads coming up (i.e. Obama has been a train wreck). And we have 4 debates to go. Obama, sans teleprompter, is known to be a disaster.

I remain very hopeful. We are down a field goal (w/out question) but there is plenty of time remaining for a game-winning TD drive.

[Colonel Kangaroo]

It’s nothing good from Obama, it’s the 47 percent comment. Giving the impression that you think half the public lack personal responsibility is a huge hurdle to overcome.

[nhwingut]

I don’t but it. I have seen several polls where about 60% of this country supports Romney’s statement. Again, if it were the other way around, then I would equate the Obama bump to this statement. But if you look at the daily trackers, Romney overcame the media’s 47% onslaught.

[yield 2 the right]

Even with oversampling Democrats in polls; these polls are very BAD NEWS for Romney. Very, very, very, very, very, bad...so bad that even with great/perfect debates by Romney/Ryan may not be enough to defeat Obama/Biden come November. (I am in pure panic mode.)

[LibLieSlayer]

When only 9 to 14% of all those being polled... will allow themselves to be polled... then one cannot go by these polls because obamites are far more likely to shore up their ass clown and take the poll than those of us that are voting against obama.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

The get ready for anarchy and blood in the streets because the communist/muslim brotherhood alliance will not be satisfied without blood. If they win... war will come inside America. It will start in the cities... and obama will promote it... just as he has done with ows.

LLS

[Sarah Barracuda]

So Obama LIES about Libya and everyone knows it and they are STILL going to vote for him..just shows how far this country has gone off the deep end..too many people embracing Socialism, when you have people sitting on their asses all day waiting for free Govt goodies to come in the mail those people will NEVER vote Republican

[Hildy]

One of the factors that nobody is taking into consideration is all the NEW evangelical voters. voters who never voted before and who are registering in record numbers.

[Artcore]

Good grief! Some of you people are the biggest bunch of bed wetters I've ever seen! Sorry, but I agree with Rush, these polls do NOT match reality. But once again FReepers put their tails between their legs and accept whatever is brought to them.

Sorry, but I think it's total hypocrisy on the part of some of you guys dissing Romney for not being strong enough, when you sit here and accept this complete and total bullshit from the MSM. Sorry, but you folks look a whole lot weaker than Romney.

If Obama is doing this great, why did he spend sooo much time in Ohio? Why is he not talking about his record?

DEMOCRATS MUST LAUGH THEIR ASSES OFF AT US! And we have the onions to laugh at the DUmmies. Freaking embarrassing.

[what's up]

I truly believe we are seeing the impact of propaganda. A self prophecy via the constant "Obama is going to win" meme of the left-wing media and culture. It is far more effective than we give credit to.

Agree with everything EXCEPT that it will be effective.

Conservatives are SET on voting. Dems are lazy and will not go out in the numbers they did in '08.

[ScaniaBoy]

To repeat myself for the umpteenth time:

This is a +9% DEM poll.

You figure out how likely that this is a representative sample in the swing states.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2938273/posts?page=67#67

[ScaniaBoy]

See my posts #67 & #91.

I fully agree. The “woe unto us” crowd is soaking their beds tonight.

[Conservative12345]

Thank you very much for posting this Rasmussen internal and detailed data for swing states. To get the results of Obama 48% Romney 44% this means a big oversampling of democrats. In fact it is D +9...

I calculated for % of democrats, % Republicans, and % Independents... and it shows % democrats 40%, % Republicans 31%, % Independents 29%...

% Obama = (84x40 + 10x31 + 39x29)/100 = 48.01% round it to 48%...

% Romney = (12x40 + 86x31 + 43x29)/100 = 43.93% round it to 44%...

Not bad at all considering a D + 9 sample... In fact if we use % D =35%, % R=35% and % I =30% then Romney would be 47% and Obama 45%...

Therefore fellow Patriots, do not panic...

[Conservative12345]

Also Obama leading among men by 7 and Romney leading among women by 2 make no sense... I think there is a massive oversampling of liberal men in this poll and under sampling of liberal women..

[Conservative12345]

In this particular sample I calculated that in order for Obama to be at 48% and Romney at 44% and based on the internal data of the poll provided by profit_guy in post # 5 then there is 40% democrats, 31% Republicans, 29% Independents...

[Conservative12345]

Excellent work ScaniaBoy... I did the same calculation of the "non leaners" and it is % D =40, % R =31%, % I = 29% to obtain Obama 48%, Romney 44%... So it is D +9 and your calculation for the "leaners" sample also shows a D +9 sample...

This scenario is simply impossible...

I am happy to see another numbers cruncher like me :)...

[Conservative12345]

Just relax... No need to panic... If a poll is oversampling democrats by 9 points and showing Obama only ahead by 4 points as in this particular poll then Romney is tied or slightly ahead in the real world...

[ScaniaBoy]

Thanks! At one time I thought I was shouting in an echo-free chamber....

Good to see that you came to the same result, fellow number cruncher.

:-)

[pen]

If you use 86% GOP,12%DEM,43%OTHER, for Romney and 48%GOP,84% DEM,39% OTHER for OB and average you have 47% for Romney and 44% for OB.It’s not needed to add all the other garbage to get the count.